Thanks very much for catching this. We've updated the extrapolation to only consider the two datapoints that are precisely specified. With so few points, the extrapolation isn't all that trustworthy, so we've also added some language to (hopefully) make that clear.

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Literature review of TAI timelines

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Jsevillamol, keith_wynroe, David Atkinson

3y

This is a linkpost for https://epochai.org/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelines

We summarize and compare several models and forecasts predicting when transformative AI will be developed.

Highlights

The review includes quantitative models, including both outside and inside view, and judgment-based forecasts by (teams of) experts.
While we do not necessarily endorse their conclusions, the inside-view model the Epoch team found most compelling is Ajeya Cotra’s “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”, the best-rated outside-view model was Tom Davidson’s “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”, and the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.
The inside-view models we reviewed predicted shorter timelines (e.g. bioanchors has a median of 2052) while the outside-view models predicted longer timelines (e.g. semi-informative priors has a median over 2100). The judgment-based forecasts are skewed towards agreement with the inside-view models, and are often more aggressive (e.g. Samotsvety assigned a

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