Crosspost from https://news.manifold.markets/p/manifold-predicted-the-ai-extinction History may look back on CAIS’s AI risk statement as a pivotal moment IF we survive AI. But, what if I told you that AI researchers “leaked” info about the statement on Manifold Markets over a week before it was published? This justifiably led to CAIS requesting...
Chat GPT-4 is already here!! Who could have seen that coming… oh wait Manifold (kinda) did? 😅 I thought I’d write a short piece on how Manifold Markets was used to predict the launch of GPT-4 and its attributes. Both its successes and its failures. Disclaimer I work at Manifold....
Just wanted to share that Manifold Markets has partnered with CSPI and the Salem Center UT to create a forecasting tournament that anyone can participate in. The top prize is a research grant for $25,000 to one of the top 5 most profitable users after 1 year. The questions being...