David Stinson

Message

Interested in the intersections between macroeconomics and cybersecurity

8mo

David Stinson

Interested in the intersections between macroeconomics and cybersecurity

Thane Ruthenis's Shortform

David Stinson6mo40

It seems to me that many disagreements regarding whether the world can be made robust against a superintelligent attack (e. g., the recent exchange here) are downstream of different people taking on a mathematician's vs. a hacker's mindset.

I'm seeing a very different crux to these debates. Most people are not interested in the absolute odds, but rather how to make the world safer against this scenario - the odds ratios under different interventions. And a key intervention type would be the application of the mathematician's mindset.

The linked post ci... (read more)

Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber re: future AI

David Stinson7moΩ230

I'd say this is a partial misunderstanding, because the difference between final and intermediate consumption is about intention, rather than the type of goods.

Or to be more concrete, this is where I get off the train.

Would the economy collapse if all humans put their spending cash towards ambitious projects like rocket ships, instead of movies and fast cars? No, of course not! Right?

It depends entirely on whether these endeavors were originally thought to be profitable. If you were spending your own money, with no thought of financial returns, then ... (read more)

Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber re: future AI

David Stinson7moΩ230

If a human population gradually grows (say, by birth or immigration), then demand for pretty much every product increases, and production of pretty much every product increases, and pretty much every product becomes less expensive via experience curves / economies of scale / R&D.

Agree?

QUESTION: How is that fact compatible with Say’s Law?

If you write down an answer, then I will take the text of your answer but replace the word “humans” with “AGIs” everywhere, and bam, that’s basically my answer to your question! :) (after some minor addition

... (read more)