I'm sorry that I didn't make it more clear but the reason I didn't update is because the information you presented me was stuff I already knew and had factored into my original calculations. That's why I already had a response ready.
Oh I am actually speaking to both sides here. I'm also speaking to Republicans who voted for Trump expecting him to make positive changes in all of these areas and they've utterly failed. He has kept zero promises while at the same time raising the national debt and weakening our national security.
Also very honestly the wrecking ball argument has always seemed to me very lazy. It's always easier to break stuff than it is to rebuild it so if you want to be a wrecking ball I need to know what you're going to try to rebuild it with. Right now it looks like the philosophies of Curtis yarvin and project 2025 are the things they're going to try to use to rebuild the country and that's horrifying
Those are fair critiques and I'll admit that I'm not the best writer and that I could have structured this better or maybe tightened up this essay. As far as my ledger I would say that implicit predictions are there and valuable because we all implicitly predict that the sun will rise the next day just because we don't articulate it doesn't mean that prediction isn't real and we don't make decisions based off of it.
And here's the thing we couldn't have predicted the exact issues that would arise but there were lots of people on the left and liberals who did successfully predict that these things and many other parts of our government would go badly under the Trump term and they aren't explicit rationalists they just projected based on what he did in his first term. At least the tariffs were well known to be a terrible idea way before he started and he somehow made them worse than what he told us on the campaign Trail.
Same thing with Elon Musk and d o g e and the national debt. Lots of people on the left predicted this would cause huge institutional problems and not really save us that much money and it turns out they were correct about that as well.
Well I plan to come back in 6 months and then a year to see how things are going so thank you for participating and we'll both update them based on what's happening in the world
1I'm pretty sure that even when you look at base rates you find that most violence done to people on the right is done by other people on the right. Obviously it would not be as Extreme as right-wing violence on left-wing targets but the right is so much more inclined to use violence that your base assumptions should always be that he was probably someone on the right and then move from there.
I think that hurts a lot of our feelings but if we're trying to be good rationalist that should be the way we think
Well speaking straight from base rates I would say that you should assume if there's political violence that it is probably someone right leaning. Based on just the numbers it is still more likely for it to be right wing on right-wing violence then left-wing on right-wing violence. So that's where we should all start.
And I want to say that the thing that bothers me is that maybe he really will be proven to be a leftist but if that is the case he is definitely a one-off fringe weirdo but that's not what the public said and when the evidence started to come out that he wasn't part of some leftist trans Terror cell the silence still happened.
The other thing I would point out is literally everything he engraved on the bullets is the kind of brainot black pill memes that are very prevalent in the nick Fuentes right-wing groypers fear and Nick Fuentes himself has a trans partner so it is very possible to be right-wing and trans supporting apparently. The helldivers quote, and the bellachow thing are both huge memes in that particular right-wing Circle.
Also to just be very blunt I am not a person who trusts cash Patel in the current FBI and everything about that text message and the way it's being handled is just so slimy and weird that I give it a 15% chance that there is something strongly being hidden here. Also I work with a lot of gen Z kids cuz I was in a school and I don't know a single one who ever wrote like that even the honor roll students with perfect grades. This part I am willing to say I could change my mind about because there are weird people who just write strangely and if we find out that all of his text messages and Discord have a very similar style of writing I will downgrade my belief about some sort of conspiracy or cover up
Well I can understand that but I said it earlier which is if you don't have a very specific critique to help me out for the future I would prefer to spend most of our time discussing the actual content of my idea and not moving it into a meta discussion about my writing style. If you have specific suggestions I'll be happy to take them in the future to improve my writing