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Modeling Transformative AI Risk (MTAIR)

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That doesn't seem like "consistently and catastrophically," it seems like "far too often, but with thankfully fairly limited local consequences."

BSL isn't the thing that defines "appropriate units of risk", that's pathogen risk-group levels, and I agree that those are are problem because they focus on pathogen lists rather than actual risks. I actually think BSL are good at what they do, and the problem is regulation and oversight, which is patchy, as well as transparency, of which there is far too little. But those are issues with oversight, not with the types of biosecurity measure that are available.

If you're appealing to OpenPhil, it might be useful to ask one of the people who was working with them on this as well.

And you've now equivocated between "they've induced an EA cause area" and a list of the range of risks covered by biosecurity - not what their primary concerns are - and citing this as "one of them." I certainly agree that biosecurity levels are one of the things biosecurity is about, and that "the possibility of accidental deployment of biological agents" is a key issue, but that's incredibly far removed from the original claim that the failure of BSL levels induced the cause area!

I mean, I'm sure something more restrictive is possible. 

But what? Should we insist that the entire time someone's inside a BSL-4 lab, we have a second person who is an expert in biosafety visually monitoring them to ensure they don't make mistakes? Or should their air supply not use filters and completely safe PAPRs, and feed them outside air though a tube that restricts their ability to move around instead? 

Or do you have some new idea that isn't just a ban with more words?
 

"lists of restrictions" are a poor way of managing risk when the attack surface is enormous 

Sure, list-based approaches are insufficient, but they have relatively little to do with biosafety levels of labs, they have to do with risk groups, which are distinct, but often conflated. (So Ebola or Smallpox isn't a "BSL-4" pathogen, because there is no such thing. )

I just meant "gain of function" in the standard, common-use sense—e.g., that used in the 2014 ban on federal funding for such research.

That ban didn't go far enough, since it only applied to 3 pathogen types, and wouldn't have banned what Wuhan was doing with novel viruses, since that wasn't working with SARS or MERS, it was working with other species of virus. So sure, we could enforce a broader version of that ban, but getting a good definition that's both extensive enough to prevent dangerous work and that doesn't ban obviously useful research is very hard.

Having written extensively about it, I promise you I'm aware. But please, tell me more about how this supports the original claim which I have been disagreeing with, that these class of incidents were or are the primary concern of the EA biosecurity community, the one that led to it being a cause area.

The OP claimed a failure of BSL levels was the single thing that induced biorisk as a cause area, and I said that was a confused claim. Feel free to find someone who disagrees with me here, but the proximate causes of EAs worrying about biorisk has nothing to do with BSL lab designations. It's not BSL levels that failed in allowing things like the soviet bioweapons program, or led to the underfunded and largely unenforceable BWC, or the way that newer technologies are reducing the barriers to terrorists and other being able to pursue bioweapons.

I did not say that they didn't want to ban things, I explicitly said "whether to allow certain classes of research at all," and when I said "happy to rely on those levels, I meant that the idea that we should have "BSL-5" is the kind of silly thing that novice EAs propose that doesn't make sense because there literally isn't something significantly more restrictive other than just banning it.

I also think that "nearly all EA's focused on biorisk think gain of function research should be banned" is obviously underspecified, and wrong because of the details. Yes, we all think that there is a class of work that should be banned, but tons of work that would be called gain of function isn't in that class.

BSL levels, which have failed so consistently and catastrophically they've induced an EA cause area,

This is confused and wrong, in my view. The EA cause area around biorisk is mostly happy to rely on those levels, and unlike for AI, the (very useful) levels predate EA interest and give us something to build on. The questions are largely instead about whether to allow certain classes of research at all, the risks of those who intentionally do things that are forbiddn, and how new technology changes the risk.

and then the 2nd AI pays some trivial amount to the 1st for the inconvenience

Completely as an aside, coordination problems among ASI don't go away, so this is a highly non trivial claim.

I thought that the point was that either managed-interface-only access, or API access with rate limits, monitoring, and an appropriate terms of service, can prevent use of some forms of scaffolding. If it's staged release, this makes sense to do, at least for a brief period while confirming that there are not security or safety issues.

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