It's still around: https://thirdfoundation.github.io/#/main
I haven't read everything on the site and do not necessarily endorse it all, but the Inflection Point curriculum document might be especially relevant.
Reference class forecasting would seem to indicate that we will soon experience a major "second wave" of coronavirus infections in many locations. This will likely be especially true in the US, which has many factors pointing towards significantly elevated risk soon (reopenings without proper infrastructure, Memorial Day celebrations, recent police brutality protests). Mostly just posting this to log the prediction, I suspect it isn't particularly novel for those who have been following these events.
I would really prefer people not talk about things like this on LW, or indeed in public at all.
Excellent post! I'd love to see more content like this on LW.
So, to be clear, Vox is very much part of the problem. Vox co-founder Matt Yglesias has openly said that he wants "wrong right-wing ideas to be discredited while wrong left-wing ideas gain power" in order to shift the US policy status quo to the left. In other words, Vox wants to tell their own narrative, and the President is better at getting his narrative out there than they are.
This doesn't mean that what's going on here isn't a problem, it is. But a solution to these sorts of media issues and incentives is going to need to address Vox's own misbehavior and related concerns as well.
I played this game a bit and then essentially just got bored and stopped. There wasn't enough depth to the gameplay in what I'd seen, and while the spell mana was sorta interesting it just wasn't really enough to grab my attention. The blocking also felt rather outmoded by modern standards, sort of like if a new game just straight up had MtG's mana system today.
I believe it's obviously wrong and the stated methodology makes no sense. The fact that community transmission is occurring does not by any means mean that 1% of the population is affected. It's possible there's some other information that justifies this but I would be *extremely* surprised if it were actually the case that 100k people are infected in Ohio right now.
Three that I can think of easily, probably more if I did some digging, it's a really bad sign IMO. In general I'm against "esoteric" methods and this one seems extra bad.
This is an area that I think is so bad that it should probably be banned from the community. In practice, getting into "tulpamancy" strongly correlates in my experience with going into unproductive and unstable states -- it's at the point where if someone tells me that they have been looking into this area, I consider it a major red flag.
One interesting point is that arguments that people use internally with their own group are more likely to be truthful than arguments that people use in a public-facing context. If you suspect people might be advancing false arguments, it can be useful to do as Denton did and investigate their own internal communications as well as the outward-facing arguments. That said, I think these scenarios are comparatively rare.