Wiki Contributions


Right, both ChatGPT and Bing chat recognize it as a riddle/joke. So I don't think this is correct:

If you ask GPT- "what's brown and sticky?", then it will reply "a stick", even though a stick isn't actually sticky.

Very useful post and discussion! Let's ignore the issue that someone in capabilities research might be underestimating the risk and assume they have appropriately assessed the risk. Let's also simplify to two outcomes of bliss expanding in our lightcone and extinction (no value). Let's also assume that very low values of risk are possible but we have to wait a long time. It would be very interesting to me to hear how different people (maybe with a poll) would want the probability of extinction to be below before activating the AGI. Below are my super rough guesses:

1x10^-10: strong longtermist

1x10^-5: weak longtermist

1x10^-2 = 1%: average person (values a few centuries?)

1x10^-1 = 10%: person affecting: currently alive people will get to live indefinitely if successful

30%: selfish researcher

90%: fame/power loving older selfish researcher

I was surprised that my estimate was not more different for a selfish person. With climate change, if an altruistic person affecting individual thinks the carbon tax should be $100 per ton carbon, a selfish person should act as if the carbon tax is about 10 billion times lower, so ten orders of magnitude different versus ~one order for AGI. So it appears that AGI is a different case in that the risk is more internalized to the actors. Most of the variance for AGI appears to be from how longtermist one is vs whether one is selfish or altruistic.

Denkenberger posted two papers he wrote in regards to a 150Tg nuclear exchange scenario (worst case scenario, total targeting of cities). As far as I can tell, although the developed world doesn't come close to famine and there is theoretically enough food to feed everyone on Earth

To clarify, the world would have enough food if trade continues and if we massively scale up resilient foods. Trade continuing is very uncertain, and making it likely that we scale up resilient foods would require significantly more planning and piloting. 

For the one paper, it is too early to tell. For the other, there just has not been very much engagement. Mainly the public debate has been between the Robock team, which is highly confident that full-scale nuclear war would cause nuclear winter, and the Los Alamos team, which is highly confident that full-scale nuclear war would not cause nuclear winter. We find the truth is likely somewhere in between. I talked about this in one of my 80k podcasts. Our analysis is quite similar to Luisa Rodriguez' analysis that cubefox links to below.

Thanks, Peter. That draft assumes global cooperation, which is likely too optimistic, so we have submitted another draft that also analyzes the case of breakdown of trade (hopefully public soon). We also have this paper that looks at the US specifically and takes into account food storage (and uncertainty of whether nuclear war would result in nuclear winter).

Great post! I've been mentioning for years that volunteering can be an effective way of making a contribution. Though many people think of volunteering as for a specific organization, I don't think it has to be, so a hobby could be an example. I think there are not enough volunteer opportunities in EA, and we've worked hard at ALLFED on our volunteer program. Not only have we had dozens of volunteers skill up, but they have also made significant contributions, often co-authoring journal articles and becoming full time staff. Thanks for the shout out! I'm actually still volunteering for ALLFED (and donating).

I'm probably a bit more concerned about monkeypox than you are, mainly because it has an alarmingly long incubation period (up to 14 days) and then a punishingly long infectious period (3-4 weeks).

So with doubling every 10.5 days, that would seem to mean a high R0 - what's your estimate? And really because some people are still being cautious about COVID, the true R0 (with normal behavior) would be even higher than what is measured now.

I would say that is basically right. AC exhaust is about as humid as indoor air. The fraction of the heating load in the summer due to infiltration really does depend on how tight your building construction is. With the numbers Jeff was assuming for a very old house, infiltration would be a much larger percentage. There are some other sources of heat in a house that come with humidity, such as people and showers, but overall it is much less humidity than bringing in outdoor air (there is heat conduction through the walls, electricity use of lighting and appliances, etc.). So that might mean that it would take you from a 25% efficiency loss (ignoring humidity) up to a 35% efficiency loss, which is still a big deal. But I'm not sure if 85°F in California typically corresponds to 50% relative humidity.

If you want to geek out on this you can use a psychrometric chart. For instance, if outdoor air is 85F and 50% relative humidity (RH), that's an enthalpy of about 35 BTU/lb of dry air. Typical exit air conditions on the cool side of an air conditioner are ~50F and 100% RH, so ~20 BTU/lb of dry air. The dehumidification portion would be going to 85F and ~30% RH or ~29 BTU/lb of dry air, so ~40% of the heat removed is in the form of condensing water (latent). This means you would take the sensible part and multiply by about 1.7 to get the total load on the air conditioner. If you were not drawing in outdoor air, the latent load would be much lower. So overall I think you're right that in CA the humidity correction is not as big as the other factors.

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