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The Adventure: a new Utopia story

Was this post recently updated or something, or are the comment timestamps all wrong? The post says it was posted on "5th Feb 2020" (and it appeared on my RSS feed around that time), but many of the comments are from 2016.

Looking for books about software engineering as a field

Since nobody else seems to have mentioned it: Code Complete is probably part of the answer you're looking for, even if it's several years old by this point - the concepts you're looking to learn aren't as fleeting as the technical details that change all the time. (Although, I don't remember if even the latest edition tackles Agile methodology, so you might need a separate resource for that if it doesn't.)

UML VIII: Linear Predictors (2)

the distance between a point p and a set of points S is defined as inf{d(p,q)|q∈S}

Is this supposed to be min instead of inf (or am I misunderstanding the notation)?

2020's Prediction Thread

India will cease to be a secular state

Do you mean formally (as in changing the wording in constitution, etc.), or by some particular pragmatic measure? I can understand where it's coming from and vaguely even agree, but I'm curious if you have any measurable indicators for this in mind.

and communal violence will become more common.

Care to put any numbers on this, for eg. number of communal incidents in a year or whatever similar measure is available?

2020's Prediction Thread
  • Meditation (or, with a small likelihood, some form of it in a different name) will become even more common and widely known. Not (yet) as widely practised as bathing every day, but as widely recommended as flossing is by dentists. (85%)
  • Capital investments in Europe will grow at a faster pace than in the US. In 2019 it seems be in a 1:4 ratio ($34 billion vs $136 billion ), which will have changed to at least 1:3 (70%). (Something similar probably holds in Asia too, but I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, divide up China vs rest of Asia, etc. )
  • Vegetarianism would be more popular. Currently 8% of world population is estimated to be vegetarian (as of 2018), this would increase to at least 20% (artificial meat products, if any, count as vegetarian for this measure). (75%)
(Reinventing wheels) Maybe our world has become more people-shaped.

Reading this made me think of the vice versa corollary - people's brains have also evolved to be more world-shaped. That's one of the things evolution has been doing for billions of years, encoding the kinds of causal relations that exist in the world around us: from very rudimentary "light -> food (so move towards light)" to creating complex narratives that explain and explore causality.

How has rationalism helped you?

I thought Team Liquid might win (p = 60%). When I saw Team Secret win a minor skirmish (teamfight) against Team Liquid, I made a new prediction of "Team Secret will win (p = 75%)". However, my original guess was correct: Team Secret eventually won that game.

I think you mean "Team Liquid eventually won the game" here, since that seems to have been your original guess.

Also, it would be interesting to see how the Dota Plus win probabilities at, say 15 minutes into the match, hold up against the actual wins/losses in the games. On the one hand, it seems very difficult to have good predictions in a game like Dota where things can turn around at the drop of a hat, but on the other hand we have OpenAI Five claiming 85% win chance just at the end of the drafting phase.

Thoughts on Retrieving Knowledge from Neural Networks

The last paragraph about a network discovering GR before we do was enlightening. I had never considered this intersection between super(-human)intelligence and explainable AI before this.

Walkthrough: The Transformer Architecture [Part 2/2]

nostalgebraist's post and Part 1 of this were pretty useful, but I really appreciate the dive into the actual mathematical and architectural details of the Transformer, makes the knowledge more concrete and easier to remember.

Small errata:

  • "calculating the inner product between their keys and values" should probably be "calculating the inner product between their keys and queries" (based on what I understand from before and based on the math expressions after this)
  • "as inputted from the encoder stack" should probably be "as inputted to the encoder stack"
Mistake Versus Conflict Theory of Against Billionaire Philanthropy

I disagree with the post (for reasons that have mostly already been spelt out in other comments), but I've upvoted it because this is exactly the kind of reasonable dissent we need in the community.

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