DirectedEvolution

Message

Pandemic Prediction Checklist: H5N1

Pandemic Prediction Checklist: Monkeypox

Correlation may imply some sort of causal link.

For guessing its direction, simple models help you think.

Controlled experiments, if they are well beyond the brink

Of .05 significance will make your unknowns shrink.

Replications show there's something new under the sun.

Did one...

12356

146

2182

DirectedEvolution

For Better Commenting, Avoid PONDS

"All around the bog still sprawls, from out the drear lake come soulless thoughts and drift into the hearts of the people, and they are one with their surroundings."— Alan Garner, The Weirdstone of Brisingamen. If our blogging is to be more than shouting into the void, we have to write good comments. But that's hard to do. Too much perfectionism, enforced positivity, criticism, status smackdowns, or vagueness in our commenting standards can all be problematic. I'm using a framework that I think has been helpful. It's simple enough. Avoid PONDS. * P = Prickly * O = Opaque * N = Nitpicky * D = Disengaged * S = Shallow Let me define each term. > Prickly means that your comment has a chilly, disapproving, mean, or unappreciative tone. It could hurt feelings, and make somebody feel dumb for opening their virtual mouth. > > Opaque means that your comment makes assertions without backing them up. You're saying stuff without giving any reason at all for it. This can also include some types of lazy "questions" that are really meant as cheap shots. Even giving a partial reason or motivation for your comment or question means that it is not opaque. > > Nitpicky means that your comment is expressing criticism of one particular part of an argument, without stating whether or how this local disagreement informs your view of the original argument as a whole. Even saying "this is just a local nitpick; I don't know if it means much for the argument as a whole" is enough to make your comment not a nitpick. > > Disengaged means that your comment doesn't give the impression that you'd be likely to carry the conversation further if you received a response. It's a "drive-by commenting." > > Shallow means that you didn't read the entire original post or comment thread to which you're responding. Each category is meant to be a very low bar. Express even mild warmth, underlying reasoning, attempt at synthesis, display of engagement, or depth of consideration -- not even all f

82Jan 20, 2021

DirectedEvolution

Message

Pandemic Prediction Checklist: H5N1

Pandemic Prediction Checklist: Monkeypox

Correlation may imply some sort of causal link.

For guessing its direction, simple models help you think.

Controlled experiments, if they are well beyond the brink

Of .05 significance will make your unknowns shrink.

Replications show there's something new under the sun.

Did one...

12356

146

2182

Anomalous Tokens on Gemini 3.0 Pro

Just now, I was working on a readme for a bioinformatics CLI utility I'm preparing to distribute. I wanted Gemini to generate manual dependency installation instructions for users who don't use mamba/conda. So in the context of the much longer conversation I was having with it about the development process,...

Jan 2851

A name for the things that AI companies are building

Neuro-scaffolds Cole Wyeth writes: > It seems like we actually do not have a good name for the things that AI companies are building, weirdly enough... > > This actually slows down my reasoning or at least writing about the topic, because I have to choose from this inadequate list...

Dec 19, 202528

Flashcards are worth it

Benefits of spaced repetition systems (Anki) go beyond saving time looking up facts. * Displaying competence: They enable you to present as highly competent in conversations where you have a copious number of precise, relevant facts off the top of your head. This can increase the opportunities available to you...

Nov 30, 202517

How I tell human and AI flash fiction apart

I got a perfect score on the recent AI writing Turing test. It was easy and I was confident in my predictions. My two main AI tipoffs are: 1. Cliche or arbitrary metaphores and imagery, jammed in to no purpose. 2. Vague scenes, purposeless activity, a letdown at the end....

Sep 10, 202538

Elaborative reading

Introduction The purpose of this essay is to describe the improvements I've made in my ability to develop an intuitive understanding of scientific and mathematical topics by reading dense technical literature. The only authority I have on this topic is based on my personal experience as a reasonably intelligent late-bloomer...

Aug 28, 202520

A brief perspective from an IMO coordinator

> I would be somewhat skeptical about any claims suggesting that results have been verified in some form by coordinators. At the closing party, AI company representatives were, disappointingly, walking around with laptops and asking coordinators to evaluate these scripts on-the-spot (presumably so that results could be published quickly). This...

Jul 23, 202537

Estimating the benefits of a new flu drug (BXM)

Introduction H5N1 is a looming threat, making regular headlines. The CDC has identified 66 U.S. human cases as of January 4, 2024. Scott Alexander has a recent post outlining the situation. There are several FDA-approved prescription antiviral flu drugs. The newest, using a novel mechanism of action called "cap-snatching," is...

Jan 6, 202541

Load More (7/145)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

DirectedEvolution

DirectedEvolution

DirectedEvolution

For Better Commenting, Avoid PONDS

(Trying To) Study Textbooks Effectively: A Year of Experimentation

Criticism of some popular LW articles

Using a memory palace to memorize a textbook.

DirectedEvolution

Anomalous Tokens on Gemini 3.0 Pro

A name for the things that AI companies are building

Flashcards are worth it

How I tell human and AI flash fiction apart

Elaborative reading

A brief perspective from an IMO coordinator

Estimating the benefits of a new flu drug (BXM)

For Better Commenting, Avoid PONDS

(Trying To) Study Textbooks Effectively: A Year of Experimentation

Criticism of some popular LW articles

Using a memory palace to memorize a textbook.

Anomalous Tokens on Gemini 3.0 Pro

A name for the things that AI companies are building

Flashcards are worth it

How I tell human and AI flash fiction apart

Elaborative reading

A brief perspective from an IMO coordinator

Estimating the benefits of a new flu drug (BXM)