Hi all, new here.
I recently came across LessWrong (through ChatGPT -- sorry...) while looking for places to have interesting and deeply intellectual conversations. I've been reading through some of the posts here and the guides to get a sense of how things work and it seems like this might be the place I was looking for.
To be honest I'm more psychologically minded than anything else; interested in how people form beliefs, the breakdown of reasoning, how biases form and stick, etc. I'm fortunate in that I've had a lot of exposure to academia from a pretty e...
I haven't had much exposure to this discussion so I might be missing something basic, but I am somewhat confused as to what would actually count as evidence here.
It seems that if someone shows behaviour like Allais or Ellsberg that we cand either say: "they're violating independence" or "the outcomes weren't specific richly enough."
With this in mind, are there any possible patterns of choice(s) that would clearly count as a real violation, rather than just something that can be explained away by redefining outcomes?