The Case for Extreme Vaccine Effectiveness

Apologies in advance for not engaging in detail with the analysis itself - my overall synthesis here is that residual risk does exist post-vaccination and is potentially non-negligible. Personally I'll be using my Oura ring to detect nighttime temperature spikes and use a high-accuracy at-home test ( if I detect a spike, followed by aggressive treatment with fluvoxamine (+potential antiviral) if the test comes back positive - these safeguards feel sufficient to travel (airplane) to see family, etc without incurring significant risk of long-term health impacts. Appreciate the work to get a tighter bead on the risk itself (and depending on conclusions, some of the above may not have great marginal risk reduction), but wanted to share as one possible mitigation strategy that I expect to be robust even in pessimistic risk-branches.

Why aren't we all using Taffix?

I'm curious if anyone knows of research comparing effectiveness of this to povidone iodine nasal spray? I make a 0.8% solution of that and use it in nose and gargle before going out (in addition to mask)

Still Not in Charge

Thank you both! Zvi - makes sense re short duration of increased interest and effective to capitalize on it while that lasts. Rob - the part I'm not seeing is the causal link between these posts and influencing/improving decisions made by the FDA and CDC.

Still Not in Charge

Out of curiosity, how come the strong speed premium on these posts? AFAICT there's nothing here that informs short-term decisions for readers; I've been skimming and mostly tossing into my to-read pile for that reason. Know I'm not exactly an important stakeholder here, but personally I'd sorta prefer to read the synthesis from a chat between yourself and Scott rather than the blow-by-blow.

(USA) N95 masks are available on Amazon

Thanks - this is super helpful! Wanted to quickly mention in case helpful for calibration - higher quality protection equipment has been available for quite some time given sufficiently dedicated searching; full face respirators were available on Amazon near the beginning of the pandemic; N95 masks and P100 filter cartridges have been reliably available via eBay.

This post is awesome info as arrival time and price are both superior to pre-existing options, but just wanted to mention the above as an update-point: if folks truly believed that this PPE was not purchasable (albeit at a higher price point previously), might be worth updating in the direction of "most things can be purchased on the internet."

Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments

As always, a huge thanks to Zvi for the synthesis. I'm posting a comment similar to last week's meeting to consolidate information regarding treatment, as it's a topic that will remain very relevant to many of us for a while.

I continue to follow the guidance provided in the link Zvi previously posted ( - I would love if anyone has better next actions specifically re treatment than those listed in the Quora response.

Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year

My current main selfish takeaway from this is that given the new strain and likely properties of it, I and my loved ones will likely get infected (whereas in the previous world I estimated our precautions as sufficient to prevent infection.)

Hence my main thoughts turn to treatment. I am currently acting on the recommendations provided in the link Zvi previously posted ( - I would love if anyone has better next actions specifically re treatment than those listed in the Quora response.

Covid 9/24: Until Morale Improves

Thanks for the info! Two questions:

  1. The linked article indicated that 10% solutions were widely available on Amazon, and links this one, but doesn't seem to give any indication why he picked that one in particular - just wanted to check if you might have seen this reasoning somewhere/if it exists.

  2. I'm not familiar with Chris Masterjohn - his web page looks like he's a content creator trying to leverage his Nutritional Science PhD into being seen as knowledgeable about a wide variety of things - is this human known to say true and useful things?

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