For the simple Raegan example we can let A=“cut federal support to local governments” and B=“Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers.”
We compare to just on it's own and this is clearly lower. Now before I have asked you these questions you have some prior for and based on your entire life up till now, so in reality these priors are and . By asking you this question I change the resulting X to some X' in a way that isn't strictly based on the A and B laid out in the question, depending on the person this could alter the probabilities at pl... (read more)
For the simple Raegan example we can let A=“cut federal support to local governments” and B=“Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers.”
We compare to just