Dr._Commonsense
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Dr._Commonsense has not written any posts yet.
Dr._Commonsense has not written any posts yet.
Eliezer, you might do well to thoroughly understand and consider Fare's criticisms of you. He seems to be one of the few readers here who isn't in awe of you, and has therefore managed nailed some fundamental mistakes you're making about human values. Mistakes that have been bugging me for some time too, but that I haven't been able to articulate, possibly because I'm too enchanted by your cleverness.
We don't value strangers on par with our friends and family, let alone freaky baby-eating or orgy-having aliens. Furthermore, I don't want to be altered in such a manner as to make me so empathetic that I give equal moral standing to strangers and... (read more)
Come to think of it, perhaps I should explain why I think there will be a long-term downward trend.
Given that every large, complex civilization before ours has eventually collapsed, the burden of proof should be on those who claim that ours is exceptional and will not collapse. If I'm wrong and our civilization outlives me, I don't mind losing some money on my investments. I'd rather be a poor guy in a rich civilization if this insures me against being a poor guy in a poor civilization. If I'm right, I want to at least use the fact that I'm right to extract some wealth as a consolation prize and use that... (read more)
WOW! Equity Private, this is the most lucid and useful analysis of a stagnation investment strategy I've seen. Thank you so much for posting.
How would your strategy be different if the goal was to get a modest return in a stagnating market, a larger return in a market crash, and a loss in the event of sustained growth? Do you think there is a way to guard against transient bubbles?
Deliberately worsening an economic slump carries with it the moral burden of possibly slowing down technological advances that would otherwise save the lives of millions of people currently doomed to die of old age.
Also, a sufficiently bad economic slump will diminish hope of successful cryopreservation for those still alive and permanently eliminate hope of revival for those already cryosuspended by causing either cryonics facilities or their suppliers to go out of business.
Michael Vassar: I agree about nano-goo and papercip scenarios having too many unknowns to be planned for at this time except in very broad terms. Regarding economic collapse, what do you think of the following statements...
Eliezer: I'm glad you're finally willing to at least consider the possibility that the world can end up someplace that is neither paperclips nor singulariparadise. A few years back a friend of mine asked you on the #sl4 IRC channel "what do you need to continue your work in the event of collapse" and your response bordered on dismissive. What got you to take long-term economic slump seriously as an existential threat?
Jonathan El-Bizri: on what grounds do you assume we will have GM biofuels online in less than ten years? How much per gallon in 2009 dollars do you expect such a fuel to cost? Why?
Jes: Mad Max scenarios happen all the... (read more)
@Sigivald: You're right. A sufficiently severe economic downturn will kill Alcor and CI dead, along with all those currently in cryostasis. Economic/political/infrastructure instability is the biggest "existential risk" for cryonicists, but nobody can be arsed to prepare contingency plans for it because I guess it's doesn't have the sexy science-fictiony cachet of asteroid hits or grey goo.
Reverse absurdity bias anybody?
Disclaimer: I am signed up.
Simon: "Eliezer tries to derive his morality from human values"
I would correct the above to "Eliezer tries to derive his morality from stated human values."
That's where many of his errors come from. Everyone is a selfish bastard. But Eliezer cannot bring himself to believe it, and a good fraction of the sorts of people whose opinions get taken seriously can't bring themselves to admit it.