Hi, physician here with background in genetics.
The BA-5 variant was given an R0 of 18.5.
But BQ1.1 displaced BA-5 and thus was necessarily more contagious with a higher R0 (I read 2x more contagious - not sure how that translates into R0).
Now XBB1.5 is displacing BQ1.1 so more contagious still?!!
Or is it?
R0 is calculated in the lab but other conditions in the real world determine what really happens out in the real world.
Right now in North America, the only ones wearing masks and distancing are those who consider themselves vulnerable or a danger to vulnerable people.
This means more people are in contact and the Real World R0 goes up and approches the theoretical one.
On the world scientific stage there was a decision last week to stop speaking about R0’s!!!! I hope it’s because Real World R0’s are difficult to follow and not because it is a politically-motivated decision.
Either way the theoretical R0 is probably greater than the Real World R0 and theoretically, every new variant that conquers the preceding one is automatically more contagious than that last one.
Hi, physician here with background in genetics. The BA-5 variant was given an R0 of 18.5. But BQ1.1 displaced BA-5 and thus was necessarily more contagious with a higher R0 (I read 2x more contagious - not sure how that translates into R0). Now XBB1.5 is displacing BQ1.1 so more contagious still?!! Or is it? R0 is calculated in the lab but other conditions in the real world determine what really happens out in the real world. Right now in North America, the only ones wearing masks and distancing are those who consider themselves vulnerable or a danger to vulnerable people. This means more people are in contact and the Real World R0 goes up and approches the theoretical one. On the world scientific stage there was a decision last week to stop speaking about R0’s!!!! I hope it’s because Real World R0’s are difficult to follow and not because it is a politically-motivated decision.
Either way the theoretical R0 is probably greater than the Real World R0 and theoretically, every new variant that conquers the preceding one is automatically more contagious than that last one.