Dr_Manhattan

Dr_Manhattan's Comments

Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2

Ok. To clarify, one of them is to blame. Maybe it's not the CDC. History will tell.

Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2
Most obviously, blaming the CDC for the FDA and HHS not allowing 3rd party detection kits is somewhere between false and misleading.

Please support this claim. It seems obvious that they shat the bed (don't know which agency, let god sort them out for now, history and FOIA requests will sort them out in the future). It seems obvious from reading the news that many many local and commercial labs would have been ready with capacity a lot sooner than they are if FDA/CDC/HHS conglomerate got out of the way sooner.

It's quite plausible that this is due to Trump pressure, history will sort this out, but my estimation of guilt will likely just move from "weasel" to "weak for not resisting", and the facts remain the same

What are the long-term outcomes of a catastrophic pandemic?
  • Significant political regime disruption in some places, Iran specifically (probably for the better there)
  • Depending on how much Chinese government fudges with the current numbers they will appear to a) have bungled at first b) actually efficiently handled the problem at an enormous scale and US will appear to do things in the opposite order. Which leads me to...
  • Trump is weakened and Bloomberg's position is going to look very strong: some actual history of crisis management, strong-man people feel comfortable with in times of uncertainty, plus he "owns" one of coutry's top med schools
  • Massive disruption in service sector as people cut down on non-necessities...
Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread

This is useful in case you have facing a choice of riding it out at home and going to a hospital with high probability of getting infected if you're not already. E.g. if you have fever chances are still high you're just experiencing regular flu, and should not go to the hospital, but if your oxigen starts dropping into the danger zone you need to go.

Draft: Models of Risks of Delivery Under Coronavirus

Potential method of coping: disinfecting room. Unpack the stuff in protective gear, then after unpacked blast it with UV light?

Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread
But it's possible we could even isolate there in the in-law unit.

I thought this was the pretty clear cut answer before you wrote it. Totally endorse. Wear masks on the flight if possible. Ask your parents to stock up or start sending prep packages there (Amazon, Costco delivers)

Quarantine Preparations
The first question for me is are people starving in Wuhan due to the outbreak?

Answer is no, as of now, though food situation is uncomfortable. (my wife has relatives there she's in contact with). Trucks come to apartment complexes and people pick up.

I'm not sure the analogy translates well to US though. For better or worse us people are less organized. Also large % population live in suburbs where such deliveries are not feasible.

OTOH we have an excellent general delivery system in Amazon, UPS etc.

I'm slightly worried.

Making Sense of Coronavirus Stats

There's some but not a lot of interest in this topic on LW; I have a mailing list with primarily rationalist types on the topic; PM me email address to be added

Making Sense of Coronavirus Stats

Data always says something unless it's randomly generated. At the very least Chinese data provides lower bounds on some things. You can get somewhat better estimates if you model their incentives (though the lying will greatly increase the uncertainty and complexity of any model)

Rationalist prepper thread

There's the opposite effect: the early diagnosed cases tend to concentrate on the more obviously serious ones (more likely to die).

https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1222577306515976192

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