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Study Guide

Koller & Friedman


They primarily & extensively statistical graphical models, not causality (but have a chapter on it)

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

Since comments get occluded you should refer to an edit/update somewhere at the top if you want it to be seen by those who already read your original comment.

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

Yes, I would! Any pointers? 
(to avoid miscommunication I'm reading this to say that people are more likely to build UFAI because of traumatizing environment vs. normal reasons Eli mentioned)




Wait, you can't get N95 or KN95 there? 

Be impatient

Sounds like vaguely-good conclusions from my pattern-matching experience but very poorly argued, with much overloading of "impatience" and many cherry picked examples. Surprisingly bad quality from you. Also, "patience" is a great virtue, context matters a lot.

Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2

Ok. To clarify, one of them is to blame. Maybe it's not the CDC. History will tell.

Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2
Most obviously, blaming the CDC for the FDA and HHS not allowing 3rd party detection kits is somewhere between false and misleading.

Please support this claim. It seems obvious that they shat the bed (don't know which agency, let god sort them out for now, history and FOIA requests will sort them out in the future). It seems obvious from reading the news that many many local and commercial labs would have been ready with capacity a lot sooner than they are if FDA/CDC/HHS conglomerate got out of the way sooner.

It's quite plausible that this is due to Trump pressure, history will sort this out, but my estimation of guilt will likely just move from "weasel" to "weak for not resisting", and the facts remain the same

What are the long-term outcomes of a catastrophic pandemic?
  • Significant political regime disruption in some places, Iran specifically (probably for the better there)
  • Depending on how much Chinese government fudges with the current numbers they will appear to a) have bungled at first b) actually efficiently handled the problem at an enormous scale and US will appear to do things in the opposite order. Which leads me to...
  • Trump is weakened and Bloomberg's position is going to look very strong: some actual history of crisis management, strong-man people feel comfortable with in times of uncertainty, plus he "owns" one of coutry's top med schools
  • Massive disruption in service sector as people cut down on non-necessities...
Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread

This is useful in case you have facing a choice of riding it out at home and going to a hospital with high probability of getting infected if you're not already. E.g. if you have fever chances are still high you're just experiencing regular flu, and should not go to the hospital, but if your oxigen starts dropping into the danger zone you need to go.

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