Takeover speeds?

For the purpose of his shortform, I am considering “takeover” to start when crazy things begin happening or it is clear that an unaligned AGI/AGI’s are attempting to takeover. I consider “takeover“ to have ended when humanity is extinct or similarly subjugated. This is also under the assumption that a takeover does happen.

From my understanding of Eliezer’s views, he believes takeover will be extremely fast (possibly seconds). Extremely fast takeovers make a lot more sense if you assume that a takeover will be more like a sneak attack.

How fast do you think takeover will be? (if it happens)

Do you expect to just suddenly drop dead?, or do you expect to have enough time to say goodbye to your loved ones?, or do you expect to see humanity fight for months or years before we lose?  

Your response does illustrate that there are holes in my explanation. Bob 1 and Bob 2 do not exist at the same time. They are meant to represent one person at two different points in time.

A separate way I could try to explain what kind of resurrection I am talking about is to imagine a married couple. An omniscient husband would have to care as much about his wife after she was resurrected as he did before she died.

I somewhat doubt that I could patch all of the holes that could be found in my explanation. I would appreciate it if you try to answer what I am trying to ask.

I seem to remember your P(doom) being 85% a short while ago. I’d be interested to know why it has dropped to 70%, or in another way of looking at it, why you believe our odds of non-doom have doubled.

I have edited my shortform to try to better explain what I mean by “the same”. It is kind of hard to do so, especially as I am not very knowledgeable on the subject, but hopefully it is good enough.

Do you believe that resurrection is possible?

By resurrection I mean the ability to bring back people, even long after they have died and their body has decayed or been destroyed. I do not mean simply bringing someone back who has been cryonically frozen. I also mean bringing back the same person who died, not simply making a clone.

I will try to explain what I mean by “the same”. Lets call the person before they died “Bob 1” and the resurrected version ”Bob 2”. Bob 1 and Bob 2 are completely selfish and only care about themselves. In the version of resurrection I am talking about, Bob 1 cares as much about Bob 2’s experience as Bob 1 would care about Bob 1’s future experience, had Bob 1 not died.

It is kind of tricky to articulate exactly what I mean when I say “the same”, but I hope the above is good enough.

If you want to, an estimate of the percentage chance of this being possible would be cool, but if you just want to give your thoughts I would be interested in that aswell.

I just want to express my surprise at the fact that it seems that the view that the default outcome from unaligned AGI is extinction is not as prevalent as I thought. I was under the impression that literally everyone dying was considered by far the most likely outcome, making up probably more than 90% of the space of outcomes from unaligned AGI. From comments on this post, this seems to not be the case.

I am know distinctly confused as to what is meant by “P (doom)”. Is it the chance of unaligned AGI? Is it the chance of everyone dying? Is it the chance of just generally bad outcomes?

Is there something like a pie chart of outcomes from AGI?

I am trying to get a better understanding of the realistic scenarios and their likelihoods. I understand that the likelihoods are very disagreed upon.

My current opinion looks a bit like this:

30%: Human extinction

10%: Fast human extinction

20%: Slower human extinction 

30%: Alignment with good outcomes

20%: Alignment with at best mediocre outcomes

20%: Unaligned AGI, but at least some humans are still alive

12%: We are instrumentally worth not killing

6%: The AI wireheads us

2%: S-risk from the AI having producing suffering as one of its terminal goals

I decided to break down the unaligned AGI scenarios a step further.

If there are any resources specifically to refine my understanding of the possible outcomes and their likelihoods, please tell me of them. Additionally, if you have any other relevant comments I’d be glad to hear them.

I have had more time to think about this since I posted this shortform. I also posted a shortform after that which asked pretty much the same question, but with words, rather than just a link to what I was talking about (the one about why is it assumed an AGI would just use us for our atoms and not something else). 
 

I think that there is a decent chance that an unaligned AGI will do some amount of human experimentation/ study, but it may well be on a small amount of people, and hopefully for not very long. 
To me, one of the most concerning ways this could be a lot worse is if there is some valuable information we contain, which takes a long time for an AGI to gain through studying us. The worst case scenario would then probably be if the AGI thinks there is a chance that we contain very helpful information, when in fact we don’t, and so endlessly continues studying/ experimenting on us, in order to potentially extract that information.

I have only been properly aware of the alignment problem for a few months, so my opinions and understanding of things is still forming. I am particularly concerned by s-risks and I have OCD, so I may well overestimate the likelihood of s-risks. I would not be surprised if a lot of the s-risks I worry about, especially when they are things which decrease the probability of AGI killing everyone, are just really unlikely. From my understanding Eliezer and others think that literally everyone dying makes up the vast majority of the bad scenarios, although I’m not sure how much suffering is expected before that point. I know Eliezer said recently that he expects our deaths to be quick, assuming an unaligned AGI.

Quick question:

How likely is AGI within 3 months from now?

For the purpose of this question I am basically defining AGI as the point at which, if it is unaligned, stuff gets super weird. By “Super weird“ I mean things that are obvious to the general public, such as everybody dropping dead or all electronics being shut down or something of similar magnitude. For the purposes of this question, the answer can’t be “already happened” even if you believe we already have AGI by your definition.

I get the impression that the general opinion is “pretty unlikely” but I’m not sure. I’ve been feeling kinda panicked about the possibility of extremely imminent AGI recently, so I want to just see how close to reality my level of concern is in the extremely short term.