Against Rationalization II

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New York / East Coast


December 10th, 6:15pm
Bruno Walter Auditorium, 111 Amsterdam Ave (between 64th and 65th streets, near the Lincoln Center stop on the 1 train)
Registration: https://forms.gle/fAFLWFCLm1pS1Hra7
Facebook Event: https://facebook.com/events/557544469714744


December 9-12
Registration: https://rationalistmegameetup.com/
Facebook Event: https://www.facebook.com/events/1468622393619899

How big of a subunit were you able to get?  Last I looked at mail-order dna, the affordable stuff was only a few hundred bases.

It is not clear to me what point you're making with your examples.  Have you written an object-level analysis of a failed LW conversation?  I realize that doing that in the straightforward way would antagonize a lot of people, and I recognize that might not be worth it, but maybe there's some clever workaround?  Perhaps you could create a role account for your dark side, post the sort of things you think are welcomed here but shouldn't be, confirm empirically that they are, then write a condemnation of those?

Less of a constraint if matters are arranged such that living in NYC is practical.  Expensive, of course, but no worse than the Bay.  It's a long-ish commute, but not too terrible by mostly-empty train (the full trains will be running the opposite direction).  Easier still if WFH a few days a week is supported.

This seems like a very confused way of thinking about earthquakes.  

In the past month, there were 4 earthquakes associated with the Juan del Fuca subduction.  All were around Richter 2.5 and no one cared.

While I suppose it's possible for a fault to produce small and large earthquakes both more often than in between, this strikes me as rather unlikely.  Generally an analysis of earthquake risk should begin be deciding what magnitude earthquakes to care about, and then calculate probabilities.

(When we say that the Seattle area is particularly at-risk, that's because architecture standards there contain very little earthquake-resilience.  Which may not be relevant here.  The actual fault line is among the less active on the west coast of North America.)

I can more easily imagine worlds where some MIRI staff lived and worked in NYC itself, though I think MIRI's first-pass goal would be to have as many staff as possible working in the Peekskill area.

You may be underestimating the mental health benefits of being immersed in a larger community. If you apply the “Comfort In. Dump Out” model of emotional support to the stress of MIRI, having strong relationships with people with less stressful lives is really important.  If MIRIans are living in a little bubble with no one to dump on but each other, stress just builds.

Seeing as MIRIans will be working outside the city and having fun inside it (regardless of where they live), they won't be traveling with the rush.

Conflict of interest disclaimer: I live in NYC and think bringing MIRI here would be good for our local community

I would point out that being an hour by train from the city is significantly closer than an hour by car.  An hour by train is an hour of relaxation or productive work (your choice), whereas an hour by car is an hour lost.  An hour by train is also reliably an hour, whereas an hour by car puts your schedule at the mercy of traffic.  Finally, an hour by train is accessible to everyone, whereas an hour by car requires possessing a car, being proficient in its use, and being confident of your ability to focus for the entire ride.

Apart from transit, I'd urge you to take weather seriously.  I lived near Seattle for two years, and going without sunlight for months at a time drained me.  (Going without proper storms messed with me too, but that's probably just me.)  I'm told working at MIRI, staring into how doomed we are on a daily basis, can be depressing. Best not to combine those.

I'll also say that I have more confidence in New York's cultural future.  It's hard to estimate the risk that Seattle will develop anti-epistemic happy death spirals like San Fransisco did.  If I had to handwave it, I'd say 30% within the next 10 years.  NYC's sheer size and internal diversity give it cultural inertia.  Odds of something like that happening here I'd put below 1%.

Burns, sunburns, repeated impact, scrapes, abrasion from overuse...

I generally only put a dressing on damaged skin if it's actually bleeding. And even then if the dressing falls off after it clots, I don't worry about it.

I'm worried about damaged skin. If I have a patch of surface where the keratin layer is abnormally thin, does that skin mutate, metastasize, and threaten my entire body? I suspect such patches are present in over 1% of individuals under normal circumstances.

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