Great post Anna, thanks for writing - it makes for good thinking.

It reminds me of The Use and Abuse of Witchdoctors for Life by Sam[]zdat, in the Uruk Series (which I highly recommend). To summarize, our modern way of thinking denies us the benefits of being able to rally around ideas that would get us to better equilibria. By looking at the priest calling for spending time in devoted prayer with other community members and asking, "What for?" we end up losing the benefits of community, quiet time, and meditation. While we are closer to truth (in territory sense), we lost something, and it takes conscious effort to realize it is missing and replace it. It is describing the community version of the local problem of a LessWronger not committing to a friendship because it is not "true" - in marginal cases, believing in it can make it true! 

(I recommend reading the whole series, or at least the article above, but the example it gives is "Gri-gri." "In 2012, the recipe for gri-gri was revealed to an elder in a dream. If you ingest it and follow certain ritual commandments, then bullets cannot harm you." - before reading the article, think about how belief in elders helps with fighting neighboring well-armed villages)

I assume Jan 1st 2025 is the natural day for a sequel :D

Finding reliable sources is 99% of the battle, and I have yet to find one which would for sure pass the "too good to check" situation: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/too-good-to-check-a-play-in-three

Some people on this website get that for some topics, acoup blog does that for history, etc, but it's really rare, and mostly you end up with "listen to Radio Liberty and Pravda and figure out the truth if you can."

On a style side, I agree with other commenters that you have selected something where even after all the reading I am severely not convinced your criticism is correct under every possible frame. Picking something like a politician talking about the good they have done, despite actually being corrupt or something much more narrow in focus and black-and-white, leaving you much less surface to defend. Here, it took a lot of text, I am unsure what techniques I have learned since your criticisms require more effort to again check for validity. You explained that sunk cost fallacy pushed you for this example, but it's still not too late to add a different example, put this one into Google doc and make it optional reading and note your edit. People may read this in the future, and no reason not to ease the concept for them!

On phone, don't know how to format block quotes but: My response to your Ramaswamy example was to skip ahead without reading it to see if you would conclude with "My counterarguments were bullshit, did you catch it?".

This was exactly what I did, such a missed opportunity!!

I also agree with other things you said, and to contribute a useful phrase, your response to BS: " is to notice when I don't know enough on the object level to be able to know for sure when arguments are misleading, and in those cases refrain from pretending that I know more than I do. In order to determine who to take how seriously, I track how much people are able to engage with other worldviews, and which worldviews hold up and don't require avoidance techniques in order to preserve the worldview." Sounds a bit like Epistemic Learned Helplessness by Scott: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/03/repost-epistemic-learned-helplessness/ Which I think is good when you are not in a live debate - saying "I dunno, maybe" and then later spending time thinking about it and researching it to see if the argument is true or not, meanwhile not updating.

Thank you for this - this is not a book I would generally pick up in my limited reading time, but this has clarified a lot of terms and thinking around probabilities!

My experience is much like this (for context I've spoken about AIS to common public, online but mostly offline, to audiences from students to politicians). The more poetic, but also effective and intuitive way to call this out (while sacrificing some accuracy but I think not too much) is: "we GROW AI". It puts it in categories with genetic engineering and pharmaceutical fairly neatly, and shows the difference between PowerPoint and ChatGPT in how they are made and why we don't know how it works. It is also more intuitive compared to "black box" which is a more technical term and not widely known.

Hello Gabriel! We plan to run this group ~3 times a year, so you should be able to apply for next round, around January/February, which would start in Feb/March. (not confirmed, just estimates).

Other comments did a great job of thoughtful critique of content but I must say that I also highly enjoyed the style, along with the light touch of Russian character writing style.

Thanks Daniel! Most talks should be available soon (except the ones we do not have permission to post)

Even for humans - are my nails me? Once clipped, are they me? Is my phone me? I feel like my phone is more me than my hair, for example. Is my child me, are my memes me, is my country me, etc etc... There are many reasons why agent boundaries are problematic, and that problem continues in AI Safety research.