They are using a basic decision making process that works great in real life (uncertain probabilities) but not great in experiments like these (known certain probabilities). This decision making processes works so well in real life that it's probably become second nature for most people and they do it without thinking. People are not inconsistent!
Step 1 - Remove potential choices that could turn out bad. (choices with a significantly lower worst case scenarios than other choices)
Step 2 - Of the remaining choices, pick the choice that has the best best case scenario.
1A:
WorstCaseSenario = 1 million
BestCaseSenario = 1 million
1B:
WorstCaseSenario = I get nothing
BestCaseSenario = 5 million
SOLVED!
They are using a basic decision making process that works great in real life (uncertain probabilities) but not great in experiments like these (known certain probabilities). This decision making processes works so well in real life that it's probably become second nature for most people and they do it without thinking. People are not inconsistent!
Step 1 - Remove potential choices that could turn out bad. (choices with a significantly lower worst case scenarios than other choices)
Step 2 - Of the remaining choices, pick the choice that has the best best case scenario.
1A: WorstCaseSenario = 1 million BestCaseSenario = 1 million
1B: WorstCaseSenario = I get nothing BestCaseSenario = 5 million
2A: WorstCaseSenario = I get... (read more)