Edward

Eliezer,

It looks like you put forth an alternate scenario to the destruction of the human race here: 

"A human being runs on 100 watts.  Without even compressing humanity at all, 800GW, a fraction of the sunlight falling on Earth alone, would suffice to go on operating our living flesh, if Something wanted to do that to us."

I did the math, and if a Dyson structure were positioned between the Earth and the Sun, only 0.0005% of electricity produced by the portion of the structure obscuring the Earth would be enough to support a population of eight b... (read more)

Here's a vastly longer and more detailed analysis of how accurate Ray Kurzweil's 2019 predictions were: https://www.militantfuturist.com/how-ray-kurzweils-2019-predictions-are-faring/

Also see this: 
https://www.militantfuturist.com/will-kurzweils-2019-be-our-2029/

And this: 
https://www.militantfuturist.com/the-kurzweil-predictions-that-dont-matter/ 

So the rise of AGI will mark the third phase shift to the global economy. 

What will the FOURTH phase shift owe to, and according to your model, when will it happen?