eitan weiss


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Techniques for probability estimates

I may be misunderstanding the multiple statements technique. I'd be willing to bet on upwards of a million to one odds that France is bigger than Italy. I would not be willing to make a million related sentences and expect to only be wrong once. The misunderstanding prob comes from the vagueness of "related" sentences. What does that mean?

In any case, the technique is only as good as the ability to judge which statements are equally difficult to a given statement

In order to do that you already have to know how sure you are of each sentence!! Isn't that cyclical?

Bayeswatch 2: Puppy Muffins

"Nothing has entered of left the building since our arrival."

(I'm new on this site. How do I quote like Pattern did?)

Did you mean "...or left the building..."?