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As others have basically said:

Isn't the point essentially that we believe the man's statement is uncorrelated with any moral facts? I mean if we did, then its pretty clear we can be morally forced into doing something.

Is it reasonable to believe the statement is uncorrelated with any facts about the existence of many lives? It seems so, since we have no substantial experience with "Matrices", people from outside the simulation visting us, 3^^^^^^3, the simulation of moral persons, etc...

Consider, the statement 'there is a woman being raped around the corner'. We are morally obliged to look around the corner. We have no more direct proof of the truth of this statement than of Pascal's mugger's statement. But we have good reason to believe the statement is correlated with a fact in one case, but no such reason in the other.

Can a machine be made that will consistently give zero correlation to this sort of thing? Hell if I know. Probably no, since you if iterate the known enough you get the absurd. But any claim that conditional probability of 3^^^^3 lives being simulated and destroyed is 1/(3^^^^^3) or something is a pile of horseshit.