enterthewoods

Crosspost Epistemic Status: Entirely ripped from Chapter 3 of “Causal Inference: The Mixtape” by Scott Cunningham which is graciously provided for free here and is generally a very good textbook. I hope that by writing this I provide a slightly shorter and easier to read explanation of the highlight (imo)...

Edit 05/24/26: I mostly don't agree with this take anymore. I think it assumes naive views of both AI takeoff (takeoff might not be smooth enough for this scenario to play out) and alignment difficulty (a short pause doesn't seem nearly sufficient enough to solve alignment). Maybe this model can...