When making bets with extreme odds, I think the precision of your estimate becomes a lot more important.
To use a simple model, if I am 10% off with my precision when I think an event has 50% odds, the actual odds might be somewhere between 40-60%, which is fine. But if I think an event has 99.4% odds (the ratio you propose,) the actual odds are in the range of 89.4-100%. (Putting my actual estimate at 94.7% - not so good!)
In order to even get up to actual odds of 99.4%, even if I believed with complete certainty, my belief would need to have a precision wi... (read more)
When making bets with extreme odds, I think the precision of your estimate becomes a lot more important.
To use a simple model, if I am 10% off with my precision when I think an event has 50% odds, the actual odds might be somewhere between 40-60%, which is fine. But if I think an event has 99.4% odds (the ratio you propose,) the actual odds are in the range of 89.4-100%. (Putting my actual estimate at 94.7% - not so good!)
In order to even get up to actual odds of 99.4%, even if I believed with complete certainty, my belief would need to have a precision wi... (read more)