Unfortunately that only helps for those with the necessary experience to discern good work, and also the time and desire to inspect it.

It's unfortunate that monetary incentives are notoriously vulnerable to being Goodharted into uselessness or worse. You try to offer a bounty on X [undesirable thing], people start [building/breeding] more of them and making a killing.
This is not to say incentives and/or subsidies can never work, only that implementing them effectively is a non-trivial task.

While they don't expect to literally see Jesus in person, there's a lot of emphasis on 'personal revelation' which is for the most part just conditioning to get believers to interpret their own regular ol' intuition/emotions as communication from the Holy Spirit. If someone believes that strongly enough, the brain provides whatever thoughts/feelings they subconsciously expect to 'receive'. It's both impressive and disturbing how well this cycle can work. Anticipation can easily function as a self-fulfilling prophecy as long as the anticipated experience is fully mental and emotional.

And because this 'evidence' has been accepted by them, they also expect their prayers to be able to miraculously heal sickness/disease (except for when it doesn't of course; "God's will" etc etc.)

I think they are genuinely unvaccinated. They believe (or profess to believe) in tons of quack medicine but AFAIK they don't spend loads of money on it. If they had a health emergency they'd still go to an ER, so they're not completely in denial of modern medicine.

Thanks for that! You're fortunate you got out before going on a mission. I lasted only a few months before I became bored out of my mind and couldn't do it any more.

I'm not even going to attempt to convince my parents. I know them well enough that if I prepared a good enough strategy I'd estimate a >40% chance of convincing at least one of them, but their lives and personalities are so enmeshed with the church that losing it would likely do them more harm than good at this point.

How did you approach dating after leaving? I don't have much of a friend group now (not specifically because I left, I just drifted away from my friends from HS after a few years) so it's really tough to meet women.

That's neat! In my case I didn't leave because of HPMOR specifically, although it certainly didn't hurt.

I'm doing decently well, thanks for asking!

1. I don't think any but the most rational/educated theists think in terms of probability to that degree. Many feel they are certain in their beliefs.

2. It doesn't make a huge difference. I know several Mormons who are likely smarter than I am (mathematicians & engineers, etc). Shaking off an entire upbringing of brainwashing is a test of critical thinking, not general intelligence. Intelligence only helps to solve problems once you apply it to the situation. Once you compartmentalize religion and surround it with mental caution tape, no amount of brilliance is likely to help unless you allow the tape to be removed.

I think one of the most important steps to being able to walk away was realizing that I could take the things I thought were good with me, while leaving out the things that I thought were false or wrong.

I second this, thanks!

I would say it's possible, just at a lower probability proportional to the difference in intelligence. More intelligence will still correspond to better ideas on average.
That said, it was not acclaimed scientists or ivy-league research teams that invented the airplane. It was two random high-school dropouts in Ohio. This is not to say that education or prestige are the same thing as intelligence^[1], simply that brilliant innovations can sometimes be made by the little guy who's not afraid to dream big.

1. ^{^}

   By all accounts the Wright Brothers were intelligent

To clarify, I was allowed to read fiction^[1], just not on Sundays. Although my mom did disapprove of Harry Potter for a long while because 'something something glorifies occult beliefs something something'.

A couple of my own hypothesis to take with a grain of salt:

• One big part of the problem is the tendency of some to vastly underestimate how difficult it is to cover up anything that a lot of people know. Also a lack of fact checking. (My friend/relative/trusted neighbor told me this, therefore it must be true)
• I think QAnon theories appeal to much of the same crowd as cults. If someone is willing to believe <small niche group> has secret knowledge that has failed peer review been suppressed by <Big Government/Forces of Ambiguous Evil>, they are more likely to accept the plausibility of other claims with similar appeal. So 911 conspiracy people are more likely to also believe that vaccines cause autism or <snake oil/homeopathy/fad treatment of the week> cures cancer but Big Pharma is keeping it secret, etc.
  I wonder if there's any good data tracking the relative frequency of this sort of thing? 
  
  In a similar vein, Utah has more MLM schemes per capita than any other state.^[2]
  
  At least nobody I know believes in Flat Earth...as far as I know.

1. ^{^}

   As long as it didn't have objectionable content, like anything remotely sexual.

2. ^{^}

   https://kutv.com/news/local/follow-the-profit-how-mormon-culture-made-utah-a-hotbed-for-multi-level-marketers