esamgood

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Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously

"let’s presume that if anyone in a household gets infected, they are probably going to infect the rest of the household, and we’ll set that probability at 100%."

Curious what the logic was here to use 100% instead of doing our best to try and find what the household secondary attack rates have been. Below is a study from Mar 4th putting it at 15%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf (4 Mar, N=391, Shenzhen cases) Household secondary attack rate was 15%

Even if it was in the 30-40% ballpark, it seems like that would be enough to heavily weigh us towards recommending for younger people to take the task of grocery shopping, no?