Generalisable argument against almost all forms of "super-technology" (e.g. extreme force multiplier style tech):
1. the world mostly works as it is; if it remained broadly similar to today, or perhaps say some year just before it seemed like we might "malthusian disaster" the world, we could potentially tick along fine forever, main risks being things like pandemics or pre-existing force multiplier stuff like nukes
2. extreme force multiplier tech (including now-mundane things like say, mass car travel, powerful industrialisation) has nonzero risk, in some%...
Are you not making the implicit assumption that all companies have equal access to capital / ability to scale here?
The "halo defence" is not, I think, an attempt to actually state that factually the outcome is less likely or has not happened.
It is, rather, that X is not important enough to warrant focus/punishment because of the positive effects of Y.
It is socially costly (basically, negative EV) to be publically seen to claim that X is somehow not a problem, hence the deflection.
To use an absurd example - imagine that my neighbour is a unique person in the world with some sort of superhuman ability to cure cancer or do incredible research that no-one else can do with ...
One issue I see with AI text prediction services is that over time normal humans' output could trend stylistically towards being LLM generated and increase the false positive rate significantly. The human version of model collapse if you will.
That is to say, right now, an "average human" likely has 20, 40, 60 etc years of natural language mimicry to go on. However, as time goes on the ratio of "LLM-input" to "non-LLM-input" increases.
I would be interested to know whether this is being monitored, for example I would expect it to be most visible first in language learning communities e.g. new learners of a language beginning to sound more "LLM-y" over time.
I imagine that the attitude depends on your own personal attitude to being fired.
For me it's like a much much less severe version of a breakup - basically, okay, it's not working out, you don't want me any more, fine.
Outside of, like, the very brief window immediately after I moved out as an adult, the loss of income is more like a "guess my numbers go up more slowly now" rather than a catastrophe. I know that a lot of people tend to spend ~everything though, that just sounds stressful in general.