Eugine_Nier

Eugine_Nier's Comments

Open thread, 30 June 2014- 6 July 2014

Agreed, it's also Eliezer's super-villain fetish thing.

Political ideas meant to provoke thought

A possibility that the paper does not raise is that instead of calculating the actual wealth held by the actual top 1%, you could estimate the Gini coefficient from the whole population, and calculate a theoretical 1% wealth.

Taleb would probably object on the grounds that the above will lead misleading results if the population is actually composed of a supper position of several distinct populations with different Gini coefficients.

Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming

Since you started this sub-thread and are clearly still following it, are you going to retract your claims that CRU predicted "no more snow in Britain" or that Hansen predicted Manhattan would be underwater by now?

I was going from memory, now that I've tracked down the actual links I'd modify the claims what was actually said, i.e., snowfalls becoming exceedingly rare and the West Side Highway being underwater.

Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming

I can only comment on the graphs which they themselves chose to plot in 2009. Snowfall was not one of those graphs (whereas it was in 2006).

Interesting. I wonder why they're no longer plotting some trends. Maybe because it's too hard to fit them into their preferred narrative.

Open thread, 9-15 June 2014

Nobody thinks the Bailiwick of Guernsey is a country, and yet .gg exists.

Well, it's sufficiently independent of the UK to function as a tax haven. It's definitely one of those entities that's on the fuzzy boundary between country and non-country, along with Hong Kong and (in a slightly different way) Dubai.

Open thread, 9-15 June 2014

I can't recall anyone calling Hong Kong a country.

Well ICANN for starters.

Rationality Quotes February 2014

Liberals would tell a story where things are reversed and class is causal of the pathology- they would say the economic changes that have occurred for the last few decades have increased 'economic uncertainty' for the lower class (for some measure of uncertainty.) which has lead to marital stress and divorce.

There were many historical periods with much much greater economic uncertainty, they also had higher marriage rates.

Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming

Here is the article I linked to above. Note that it implies a different conclusion about recent temperature trends. Do you have any evidence for preferring your letter to the editor over the article Eric discusses besides it confirming your pre-existing belief?

The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.

It doesn't read that way to me.

Have you even read the article you linked to? Here are the first four sentences:

Early climate forecasts are often claimed to have overestimated recent warming. However, their evaluation is challenging for two reasons. First, only a small number of independent forecasts have been made. And second, an independent test of a forecast of the decadal response to external climate forcing requires observations taken over at least one and a half decades from the last observations used to make the forecast, because internally generated climate fluctuations can persist for several years.

Separating the roles of theory and direct empirical evidence in belief formation: the examples of minimum wage and anthropogenic global warming

Yes, some global warming believers have made predictions that have been falsified, but "inevitably fail to occur" is wrong. Here's a counterexample.

The only example of a successful prediction in your article is a rise in "mean surface temperature" which as I mentioned in the grand-parent is not hard to fudge, heck I also linked to data that gives opposite conclusions in the grand-parent. The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.

Julia Hargreaves does a lot of work evaluating predictive climate models, and her conclusion is that there are reliable models for predicting broad global climate response to anthropogenic forcing, but we don't currently have trustworthy predictions at the sub-continental scale. So I think it is appropriate to be skeptical about confident and precise predictions about what will happen in particular parts of the world.

And yet for some reason all said predictions fail in the same direction.

Load More