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Meetup : Durham: Ugh Fields Followup

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Meetup : Ugh Fields

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Meetup : Durham: Stupid Rationality Questions

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Meetup : Social meetup in Raleigh

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Meetup : Durham: New Years' Resolutions etc.

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Meetup : Durham: Luminosity followup

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Rationality witticisms suitable for t-shirts or bumper stickers

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Meetup : Zendo and discussion

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Meetup : Durham: Luminosity (New location!)

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Meetup : Durham HPMoR Discussion, chapters 51-55

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Recent Comments

Obvious kinds of humans include:

Dead humans. (Who didn't manage to leave the coins to their heirs.)

Cryonically preserved humans hoping to use them later. (Including an obvious specific candidate.)

Humans optimistic enough about Bitcoin to think current prices are too low. (We know Nakamoto had ...(read more)

The advanced answer to this is to create conditional prediction markets. For example: a market for whether or not the Bank of Japan implements a policy, a market for the future GDP or inflation rate of Japan (or whatever your preferred metric is), and a conditional market for (GDP given policy) and ...(read more)

I hope you have renter's insurance, knowledge of a couple evacuation routes, and backups for any important data and papers and such.

I'm not aware of any legal implications in the US. US gambling laws basically only apply when there is a "house" taking a cut or betting to their own advantage or similar. Bets between friends where someone wins the whole stake are permitted.

As for the shady implications... spend more time hanging...(read more)

The richer structure you seek for those two coins is your distribution over their probabilities. They're both 50% likely to come up heads, given the information you have. You should be willing to make exactly the same bets about them, assuming the person offering you the bet has no more information ...(read more)

Well, in general, I'd say achieving that reliability through redundant means is totally reasonable, whether in engineering or people-based systems.

At a component level? Lots of structural components, for example. Airplane wings stay attached at fairly high reliability, and my impression is that wh...(read more)

You might also want a mechanism to handle "staples" that individuals want. I have a few foods / ingredients I like to keep on hand at all times, and be able to rely on having. I'd have no objections to other people eating them, but if they did I'd want them to take responsibility for never leaving t...(read more)

Those numbers sound like reasonable estimates and goals. Having taught classes at [TechShop](http://techshop.ws), that first handful of hours is important. 20 hours of welding instruction ought to be enough that you know whether you like it and can build some useful things, but probably not enough t...(read more)

> However, I'm skeptical of systems that require 99.99% reliability to work. Heuristically, I expect complex systems to be stable only if they are highly fault-tolerant and degrade gracefully.

On the other hand... look at what happens when you simply *demand* that level of reliability, put in the e...(read more)

What happens when the committed scorched-earth-defender meets the committed extortionist? Surely a strong precommitment to extortion by a powerful attacker can defeat a weak commitment to scorched earth by a defender?

It seems to me this bears a resemblence to Chicken or something, and that on a la...(read more)