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extinction-bounties

Message

10mo

Some skepticism about skepticism about efficacy of pausing AI

TL;DR: Basic economics to AI research suggests that making frontier R&D more expensive will reduce its pace, shifting our median timelines outward and lowering FOOM risk. This is probably true even if only one major geopolitical player does it. It is a truth universally acknowledged in Econ 101 classes that...

May 15, 2025•5

extinction-bounties

10mo

extinction-bounties — LessWrong

extinction-bounties

Message

10mo

Some skepticism about skepticism about efficacy of pausing AI

May 15, 2025•5

extinction-bounties

10mo

Some skepticism about skepticism about efficacy of pausing AI

extinction-bounties

9mo

TL;DR: Basic economics to AI research suggests that making frontier R&D more expensive will reduce its pace, shifting our median timelines outward and lowering FOOM risk. This is probably true even if only one major geopolitical player does it.

It is a truth universally acknowledged in Econ 101 classes that an action made more expensive by some means (costlier inputs, government regulations, etc.) will be done by people less often. Yet, for some reason, people often forget they can apply this to the action of producing novel scientific or technological research - something I claim is probably still the dominant FOOM risk factor of today.

(I don't plan to back up that claim rigorously... (read 508 more words →)