Ezra

Gay in Seattle, probably

Ezra's Comments

In defence of epistemic modesty

My example was getting too wordy, and I tried to delete it. The mobile editor assured me that it had been done, but it had not. I've separately submitted a fixed version of this comment.

In defence of epistemic modesty

If you publicly report your "by-my-lights" credences but act according to your "all-things-considered" credences, I would think that that would leave you open to people deciding that you're not accurately reporting your true beliefs, or conversely that you're not very good at acting on your professed beliefs.

So I guess you have to always report both together, or at least include a link to this article when reporting "by-my-lights" beliefs.

In defence of epistemic modesty

If you publicly report your "by-my-lights" credences but act according to your "all-things-considered" credences, I would think that that would leave you open to people deciding that you're not accurately reporting your true beliefs, or conversely that you're not very good at acting on your professed beliefs.

So I guess you have to always report both together, or at least include a link to this article when reporting "by-my-lights" beliefs.

So I guess you have to always report both together, or at least include a link to this article when reporting "by-my-lights" beliefs.For concrete example: suppose I were a medical researcher and I believed I'd discovered a strong link between dental floss and tooth cancer. All my research pointed that way, and I reported that strong belief for others to consider in forming their own estimates. But the dental community, as yet unswayed, continued to

In defence of epistemic modesty

Would it be useful for me to report things which seem to me to be typos?

Initial thoughts on assisted formatting of discussion posts

Thanks for the more convenient workaround. That'll help when I do manage to compose a comment.

Initial thoughts on assisted formatting of discussion posts

This has been an experiment in

  • writing a post on LW 2

  • Writing with the LW 2 mobile editor

Verdict: the mobile editor is very painful, but setting the editor aside, the actual posting process is pleasant enough.

There's no way to access the submit comment button in portrait on mobile. Workaround: landscape.

Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided

I was surprised and pleased to discover that the rock band Switchfoot have a song about the terrible cost to oneself of treating one's arguments as soldiers. It's called "The Sound in My Mouth". (Youtube link, with incorrect lyrics below it; better ones can be found at the bottom of this fansite page)

It focuses on the social costs rather than the truth-finding costs, but it's still well ahead of where I usually expect to find music.

Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization

"Perhaps the demographic collapse of advanced societies happens because the market supplies ever-more-tempting alternatives to having children, while the attractiveness of changing diapers remains constant over time."

The attractiveness of changing diapers does not remain constant over time. Modern diapers have little sticky tape on, and can be thrown out after a single use. Much better than washing cloth diapers and pricking yourself (or the baby!) attaching them.

For now, diapers remain a stinky mess. But we may yet invent a baby-washing, diaper-changing machine, without a sense of smell.