I have some issues with the third experiment (URSS vs. USA). Let me try to explain them with an example.
Suppose you see a chess match up to a given point, with black to move. You are asked an estimate W1 of the probability that white can force a win. Then you see black's move, and it's a truly, unexpectedly brilliant move. You are then asked a new estimate W2 of the probability that white can force a win. If black's move is sufficiently brilliant, it's natural for W2 to be lower than the answer a "previous you" gave for W1: black has seriously undermined white's chances with his move. But the Russia... (read more)
I have some issues with the third experiment (URSS vs. USA). Let me try to explain them with an example.
Suppose you see a chess match up to a given point, with black to move. You are asked an estimate W1 of the probability that white can force a win. Then you see black's move, and it's a truly, unexpectedly brilliant move. You are then asked a new estimate W2 of the probability that white can force a win. If black's move is sufficiently brilliant, it's natural for W2 to be lower than the answer a "previous you" gave for W1: black has seriously undermined white's chances with his move. But the Russia... (read more)