Introduction
Why hasn't AI automated away more professions? One way of investigating this question is to compare the skills that real jobs require with current AI systems' capabilities. As long as there's a gap between these two, full automation is unfeasible.
One important limitation is that AI systems cannot yet act coherently over long periods of time. While AI has demonstrated impressive capabilities in solving concrete, isolated problems, maintaining consistent goals, reasoning, and plans over extended time frames has proven more challenging.
We know AI systems are getting better at completing tasks over longer time horizons, as METR’s recent work shows. But how much better will they need to get to start having real economic impact,... (read 3109 more words →)
Apologies for the delay! You can find the data, plots, and code here: https://git.xfe.li/dorn/sprint-econtai/src/branch/next/dist/intermediate