Biggest update for me was the FBI throwing their weight behind it being a lab-leak.
These sound super interesting- could you expand on any of them or direct me to your favorite resources to help?
That's an interesting idea! I think it's really cool when things come easily, but I know it's not going to generally be the case- I'm probably going to have to put some work in.
My priority is more on the 'high-utility' part than anything.
Something that seems like it should be easy but is actually difficult for me is executive functioning- getting myself to do things that I don't want to do. But that's more of a personal/mental health thing than anything.
Thanks for the response! Do you have any recommended resources for learning about 3d sketching, optics, signal processing or abstract algebra?
Could someone open a manifold market on the relevant questions here so I could get a better sense of the probabilities involved? Unfortunately, I don't know the relevant questions or the have the requisite mana.
Personal note- the first time I came into contact with adult gene editing was the youtuber Thought Emporium curing his lactose intolerance, and I was always massively impressed with that and very disappointed the treatment didn't reach market.
I really relate to your description of inattentive ADHD and the associated degradation of life. Have you found anything to help with that?
What would you mean by 'stays at human level?' I assume this isn't going to be any kind of self-modifying?
What does it mean for an AI to 'become self aware?' What does that actually look like?
Is there reason to believe 1000 Einsteins in a box is possible?
You need to think about your real options and expected value of behavior. If we're in a world where technology allows for a fast takeoff world and alignment is hard, (EY World) I imagine the odds of survival with company acceleration is 0% and the odds of survival without is 1%.
But if we live in a world where compute/capital/other overhangs are a significant influence in AI capabilities and alignment is just tricky, company acceleration would seem like it could improve the chances of survival pretty significantly, maybe from 5% to 50%.
These obviously aren't the only two possible worlds, but if they were and both seemed equally likely, I would strongly prefer a policy of company acceleration because the EV for me breaks down way better over the probabilities.
I guess 'company acceleration' doesn't convey as much information or sell as well which is why people don't use that phrase, but that's the policy they're advocating for- not 'hoping really hard that we're in a slow takeoff world.'