I came to similar conclusions after another geopolitical event few years ago.

I feels as if OpenAI acted as a client of Epoch AI ordering a math benchmark and that Epoch AI would not be working on it without this funding.

I also suspect that computer use/task execution benchmark EpochAI is hiring for currently (Technical Lead, Benchmarks) has the same arrangement with OpenAI.

William,

not exactly an answer to your question but BOTEC estimate for FrontierMath costs: $400k — $2M

BOTEC estimate for funding: $400k — $2M

EpochAI shared two job postings on their LinkedIn few months ago that seem relevant to FrontierMath:

• Senior Mathematician for Project Lead, AI Benchmarking
• Senior Mathematical Problem Creator (Part-Time/Full-Time Contractor Positions)

Project lead compensation is $200k/year with expected contract length of 7 months: ~$100k.

Benchmark consists of about 1k problems, payment per problem is between $300 and $1k based on quality. Full-time contributors also have base rate of $2k/month with 2-4 months expected duration. Over 60 mathematicians have contributed.

Low amount assuming just project lead, minimally valued problems ($300), no full-time contractors, no overhead (e.g. taxes):
$100k+1000\times 300\approx 400k$

Medium amount assuming project lead, medium valued problems ($500), 10 full-time contractors working for 3 months, 30% of overhead:

$(100k+1000\times 500+10\times 2000\times 3)\times 1.3\approx 900k$

High amount assuming project lead, exceptional problems ($1k), 60 full-time contractors working for 3 months, 50% of overhead:
$(100k+1000\times 1k+60\times 2000\times 3)\times 1.5\approx 2M$