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nikos
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Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?
nikos2y10

Agreed. I think a strong reason why this might work at all is that forecasters are primarily judged by some other strictly proper scoring rule - meaning that they wouldn't have an incentive to fake calibration if it makes them come out worse in terms of e.g. Brier or log score. 

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Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?
nikos2y10

Thanks, yeah that list looks interesting!

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Project Lawful Audiobook: An Unofficial Fan Production with ElevenLabs AI
nikos2y10

The audio quality is incredible! How automated is the process vs. how much manual work are you putting in? Really appreciate what you're doing, thanks a lot!

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Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
nikos3y10

This looks really cool! And it would be nice to get some version of this (or at least a link to it) on the Forecasting Wiki.

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46A Guide For LLM-Assisted Web Research
15d
3
182Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting
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9mo
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16
43Unit economics of LLM APIs
10mo
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14Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?
2y
5
5Comparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal World
2y
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18Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold Markets
2y
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2Creating a database for base rates
3y
1
7Announcing the Forecasting Wiki
3y
0
7Announcing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge
4y
0
17Crowd-Forecasting Covid-19
5y
0
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