I've just started building a website yesterday that I think would be super interesting, but I'm not sure if it's legal or if Metaculus/Elicit would be fine with it. The idea: Super-forecasters as a Service. Say I wanted to know if I should book a flight to Costa Rica this...
I. AR Glasses are an unusually foreseeable technological innovation. They’ve been around in pop culture and science fiction for a long time. Everybody seems to agree that at some point, be it in 5, 10 or 20 years, they’ll be as ubiquitous as smartphones and eventually replace them. Maybe it’s...
I’ve recently become aware of the world of non-fungible tokens. Wikipedia puts it as: > A non-fungible token (NFT) is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique; non-fungible tokens are thus not mutually interchangeable. > > Non-fungible tokens are used to create verifiable digital scarcity, as well...
https://twitter.com/MetaculusAlert
I disagree. Daily tests have only gone down slightly, which is to be expected if less people are getting infected (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?country=~GBR)
And crucially, it's not only total positive tests per day that has been dropping; the share of positive tests has also been going down significantly: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-covid-positivity
So I don't think your theory passes the sniff test.
I'm personally very confused about the drop in cases, and none of the theories I've heard seem likely.
Qualia Research institute is working on building a catalogue of qualia iirc.
His videos are clearly filmed with a phone, vertically, with no effort whatsoever in terms of production.Also he posted around 15 videos in the span of a couple of monhts, and never posted again. If you contrast that with cooking channels like Adam Ragusea, it's pretty clear why it didn't become as popular.
Yes. I would still use it though. For grand-scheme-of-things stuff, Metaculus is great. For stuff that's personally relevant (What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?) predictions from people with great track records is good enough for me.
Note that the title is super-forecasters as a service, not prediction-markets as a service.
I've just started building a website yesterday that I think would be super interesting, but I'm not sure if it's legal or if Metaculus/Elicit would be fine with it.
The idea: Super-forecasters as a Service.
Say I wanted to know if I should book a flight to Costa Rica this summer, but I'm hesitant because of Covid flight restriction uncertainty. I could create the following question using Elicit: "Will commercial flight BA2490 from the UK to Costa Rica in July 24 be cancelled?"
The website would let you embed your elicit question, and pay people for predicting. People get paid based on their Points-per-question in Metaculus. You can "auction" 100 dollars on a question, and... (read 251 more words →)
I loved the notation you used to distill the feedback loop idea. I'll add it to the post, if you don't mind.
I.
AR Glasses are an unusually foreseeable technological innovation. They’ve been around in pop culture and science fiction for a long time. Everybody seems to agree that at some point, be it in 5, 10 or 20 years, they’ll be as ubiquitous as smartphones and eventually replace them.
Maybe it’s precisely the fact that we know they are coming that makes them seem uninteresting. There’s a lack of excitement about them. Few people seem to be speculating deeply about how a world in which everybody owns a pair of AR Glasses will look like; except with ultra pessimistic Black Mirror-ish objections.
The current zeitgeist does make it hard to get excited. There’s a general narrative... (read 4837 more words →)
I asked, thanks for the tips!
Great reply. I share your beliefs on consciousness copying, and would have the same concerns.
... (read more)As a continuity believer, I think that the original Mona Lisa objectively is more valuable and that only something which destroyed the information of which one that is could possibly render it fungible with a copy - for the same reason I believe that my own continuity of consciousness is an absolutely necessary prerequisite for a being to be defined as "me", and that a perfect copy of me would be another person entirely who just happens to resemble me. The only way you could get me to consider the copy equivalent to myself, is if you erase
Unless you value having the original. Imagine a private collector and the head of an art gallery, both happy they have the Mona Lisa. And only the thief who promised the private collector they'd switch it out for a forgery knows which is the forgery, and which, is the original.
Indeed. That maps well to the idea that we value "originals" more for the sake of them being originals, even if they don't provide any additional utility to us compared to copies besides that fact.
I’ve recently become aware of the world of non-fungible tokens.
Wikipedia puts it as:
A non-fungible token (NFT) is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique; non-fungible tokens are thus not mutually interchangeable.
Non-fungible tokens are used to create verifiable digital scarcity, as well as digital ownership, and the possibility of asset interoperability across multiple platforms.
The application of NFTs that I found the most thought-provoking is in digital art. There’s websites, such as opensea.io, that have listings of NFT-based digital paintings.
In that website, you can buy any of the listed NFT-based paintings, and become the proud owner of the “original” version of a digital painting. People are paying outrageous sums of money... (read 1331 more words →)
I don't want to be provocative, but if there was political will to stop AGI research it could probably be stalled for a long time. In order to get that political will, not only in the West but in China as well, a pretty effective way to do it might be figure out a way to use a pre-AGI model to cause mayhem/harm that's bad enough to get the world's attention, while not being apocalyptic.
As a random example, if AI is used somehow to take down the internet for a few days, the discourse and political urgency regarding AGI would change drastically. A close analogue is how quickly the world started caring about Gain-of-function-research after Covid.