My whole family takes a round of ivermectin every year or so for the same reason. Anti parasitics don’t really have bad side effects (often have good side effects such as -inflammation) so it’s just positives all around.

Thank you for the post, I'll be watching the video later. The first thought that comes to my mind is why wasn't there a helicopter search in the area? The paucity of trees on the terrain seems to be perfect for helicopter reconnaissance but I see no mention of that in this post.

Real money prediction markets are biased towards outcomes that increase utility of the bettors.

For an example: there is a prediction market on who will win the presidential race, Alice or Bob. Currently the market sits at 50-50 and the payout for $1 on Alice is $2 and the same for Bob. Our bettor, Charlie, has internal odds that are the same as the market, however he also believes with an incredibly high certainty that if Bob wins the race then the buying power of a dollar will double. Therefore $1 on Bob is worth $4 if Bob wins, but the same $1 on Alice will only be worth $2. Because of this Charlie will bet the market all the way to 66-33 favoring Bob. This is despite the fact that his internal probability that Bob wins is only 50-50.

I’m surprised that anyone here cares about environmentalism. Aren’t any of the far reaching effects of what we do today with the environment insignificant compared to the development of ai? Friendly ai will be able to solve any of the pollution issues we’re creating today. Unless you think we’re going to successfully pause ai for hundreds of years then I just don’t see the point in making life worse for present humans for some speculative benefit to the future population.

Yeah openly admitting that I have a strong case is good for credibility building. One of the most annoying things is when defense attorneys ask,

"Why is Alice is getting a sweetheart plea deal and Bob is getting jail time when they both committed the same crime and both have minimal criminal history???"

"Uh, Alice's case is almost purely circumstantial while Bob is caught on camera, that's the difference."

"But they both did the same bad thing!"

"Do you understand how plea deals work?"

"[Some nonsense showing that the defense attorney indeed doesn't know how plea deals work]"

I thought the first quote was tongue in cheek and implied that teachers want stupid pupils.

I’m the first one

Yeah I stupidly left out the key point of my comment. Added it in edit.

I think you’re understating how helpful it can be for a client if their pd strongly advocates for them. When a pd is telling me about all these mitigating circumstances and asking me to drop the jail because the perp has kids and the kids are here in court and he’s the sole bread winner and please just walk back for a second and speak to them and look one of your witnesses has two armed robbery felonies so I might actually win this case; that affects me. I like to pretend that it doesn’t but I’ve come down on offers many times after the pd goes to bat for their client. But that’s only because they don’t go to bat for every single client. Sure they ask on most every client for a lower offer but 90% of the time it’s just an ask without much substance. When they’re going to bat for the guy it makes me think that hey maybe the perp isn’t really that terrible and if I can stop from getting bothered then just drop a year of jail.

Edit: forgot to mention that the perp should lie to his pd because on the off chance the pd believes it then the pd might go to bat for him more because he’s actually innocent (rare). Because the pd’s that go to bat the same amount for every client, I don’t care about what they say at all unless it’s a true evidentiary issue.

You can probably walk into a random law office and ask the attorney to tell you war stories. There’s a lot of supply for that and very little demand.