fuego
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fuego has not written any posts yet.
This sounds like serious confounding. In all likelihood, prison docs had X doses and triaged, and then repeated.
I will say though -- I do still think Moderna primary was likely better, but I've (since writing) found out that the booster is half the dose of the primary dose -- so I doubt Moderna's increased efficacy translates to the booster.
Adding in post: Omicron both increases short term value of booster and may increase risk of hitting any lifetime cap (its further evidence for more future variants that will warrant boosting)
On somewhat further investigation (really limited here -- lets not lean too much on it) -- the Moderna boosters are half the dose of the Moderna primaries. If you believe, as I do, that the primary reason for increased Moderna efficacy in trials was due to dosing, then the reduced booster dose means that the reason I give above (higher efficacy) is no longer a relevant factor.
I do think @npostavs is right that this study is likely quite confounded. Though I do still believe Moderna primary doses had reasonably better efficacy against OG covid, and in all likelihood against delta and now omicron.
I'm in basically the same boat as you, 30ish adult, Pfizer regime completed in April. I too have been lazy and uninterested in side effects (knocked out for a day after second dose). And I too am exceptionally interested in hearing discussion of "should I" as well as timing/choice thoughts. So -- just throwing out my thoughts. (Caveats: I'm an econ/stat type, my last bio-ish class was in high school and I remember none of it).
I think my basic answer is "yes". The longer answer is:
Look at their photos. If you like them, they know their subject (though perhaps not how to teach it). If you don't like them, find a new instructor. Rinse and repeat. Most tutorial people put their photos online to some extent, so this shouldn't be hard -- and unlike many domains (e.g. woodworking) -- looking at the photo on your screen should be enough to judge it pretty well.
If you can't tell if you like them, I suspect that your first step should be to try to develop your "taste". Start by just looking at tons of pictures. I recommend one of the photo-apps that isn't instagram, though instagram can work. Flickr... (read more)
Honestly I think the celebrations stopped being "valued" by the people who could organize them.
A big celebration involves a lot of planning effort and a fair bit of cash. And it can easily wind up looking like there was substantial corruption in choice of vendors, etc.
On top of that, for cash strapped local govs, the Q "can this money be better spent elsewhere" is real and all consuming.
I think this is right here, though I'd push it forwards a little. 7 days incubation +a few days to detect for some people etc, and you're probably looking at reasonable protection even on t+1 and t+2. I think basically the "dose+ 14 days" is coming down to the fact that it takes us up to 14 days to detect. Otherwise, those two numbers (and pieces of guidance) are suprisingly similar.
The big caveat to all this is that the NEJM figure (based on Pfizer's EUA submission) is focused on OG covid, not covid 2.0.
But the math I did back when I got my shot (based on that figure + an incubation period), was that within 2 days I was at like 70% efficacy.
I think a large factor for people making decisions around covid risk is not just the risk they are posing to themselves, but also the risk they are imposing on others. Insofar as "risk I impose on others" enters my utility function, this is going to change a lot of your conclusions pretty quickly. The reason being that "risk imposed on others" is growing super-linearly in most activities.
E.g. If I go to a restaurant and then meet a friend, I've incurred much more risk to the friend than if I didn't go to the restaurant. If I then meet a third friend separately, the risk to that friend is increased by... (read more)
This (US export ban) is news to me. Can you link to a source for that?
Fully agree with this -- though I'm not optimistic that hospitals will allow much of it.