I'd guess 1%. The small minority of AI researchers working on FAI will have to find the right solutions to a set of extremely difficult problems on the first try, before the (much better funded!) majority of AI researchers solve the vastly easier problem of Unfriendly AGI.
Huh. Is it possible that the corpus callosum has (at least partially) healed since the original studies? Or that some other connection has formed between the hemispheres in the years since the operation?
Yes it was video. As Brillyant mentioned, the official version will be released on the 29th of September. It's possible someone will upload it before then (again), but AFAIK nobody has since the video I linked was taken down.
I changed the link to the audio, should work now.
Sam Harris' TED talk on AGI existential risk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZhGkKFH1x0&feature=youtu.be
ETA: It's been taken down, probably so TED can upload it on their own channel. Here's the audio in the meantime: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B5xcnhOBS2UhZXpyaW9YR3hHU1k
If you don't like it now, you never will.
Yeah, I edited my comment after reading kilobug's.
Ahh, it wasn't meant to be snarky. I saw an opportunity to try and get Eliezer to fess up, that's all. :)