Wiki Contributions

Comments

Answer by garethJul 14, 202210

I understand your struggle. I dream of being able to coherently communicate my ideas in a structured, understandable and dare I say convincing manner. I succeed when I start with an idea, write it down and start adding notes, ideas and talking points. Then I start fleshing out the ideas, asking myself how can I explain that concept or idea, whilst building an evolving narrative. Usually what starts as a mess of notes evolves into something coherent when I put myself in the position of the reader, asking myself i) what am I trying to communicate; and ii) am I sure this is clear to the reader.

Reading your post, it’s obvious that you know how to communicate clearly. Half the battle is having the courage (and the time) to get started. Just do it! Hope that helps.

Meditation and morning pages / journaling are 2 things that I regularly do. I have found that meditation is helpful for focus and clearing my mind. Morning pages has made me much better at understanding my thought processes and resolving issues I may have, whether personal or professional. When I started them both I wasn’t sure what the result would be but now as I practice they are both super useful tools that have improved my life.

Relative pitch and absolute pitch are 2 different skills. While most people can learn relative pitch, some people say that absolute is genetic and can’t be learnt. I don’t believe this is true (at least in my case). My technique is to learn songs that start on a specific pitch (C for example) and internalise the pitch, imagine the sound and try to sing it before comparing with the original. Try this exercise every morning, take notes and see if you improve over time.

If you have your booster then the symptoms of omicron will likely be mild. Anecdotally I just recovered from O after booster and my symptoms were so mild that if I hadn’t tested, I wouldn’t have known. My two unboosted friends suffered more with 3-5 days of flu-like symptoms. My decision was to get my booster, take hi-dose vitamin D and get on with my life, although everyone will have to make their own cost benefit analysis based on personal health situation, whether they can afford 5 (or 7 or 10 depending on country) days quarantine.

I’m not an immunologist so can’t talk of the efficacy of various vaccine strategies which seem unclear at the moment, but I ask myself - what is the opportunity cost of not getting a booster now? If we assume that omicron boosters will be available in (at best) 3-4 months, and then given to elderly or immunocompromised people first, the chance of me getting an omicron booster in the next 6 months is low. Weigh that against the chance of getting omicron covid in the next 6 months. Looking at the data, we can already establish that omicron is more contagious and looking at increases in infection rates in Europe over the last few weeks along with the fact that omicron will (probably) soon become the dominant strain, I’ll take a small increase in immunity now over a potentially larger one in 6 months when the omicron wave may be over. That’s just my risk calculation though - I got moderna booster yesterday. YMMV

As the saying goes, “it’s time in the market, not timing the market”. There is a lot of research that says that market timing is incredibly difficult and most people fail to do it successfully.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2016/03/07/the-myth-of-market-timing/

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/12/23/3-reasons-why-you-shouldnt-wait-for-the-stock-market-to-crash/

Also your assumption that the fed will raise interest rates to control inflation assumes that low inflation is their actual goal rather than just their stated goal. This months ARP newsletter has an excellent analysis of why higher inflation might be their desired outcome : https://www.arpinvestments.com/arl/why-much-wealth-must-be-confiscated

Furthermore, if you have already sold all your stocks, you are already sitting on a potential 30% gain if your assumptions play out. Shorting the market is a high risk leveraged strategy that could leave you with large losses if the market goes sideways, or continues to rise over the next months.

To be clear I do think that a significant market correction is coming, however as someone who tried (and failed) to successfully time investments during the dotcom bubble and in much of the decade after, I am much more comfortable being fully invested, knowing that whatever happens short term, this is the easiest, and lowest risk way (for me - based on my investment profile and personality) to maximise my returns long-term.

Good luck in any case!

Or just put a checklist in your travel bag. I recommend the small refillable bottles that you can get at places like muji (no idea if muji is a thing where you are) as they mean I can just take enough for a weekend or one week , keep volume to a minimum and allow me to take my bag as carry-on. Having spares is a great reason to do this though.

This seems a little harsh. Sure Wikipedia has many rules, mostly to prevent bias or people pushing agendas. It’s not perfect, but in general I have found it to be a reliable, neutral source of information especially in controversial subjects such as Middle East politics for example.

Also research shows that Wikipedia is a reliable source https://www.zmescience.com/science/study-wikipedia-25092014/ although I’m sure you can find research that shows the opposite.

And as the original poster says, if you find something inaccurate, spend 5 minutes to give back and fix it. I have made hundreds of small edits and maybe only a handful have been deleted / rolled back

I can’t talk about your specific examples of course but I would trust (cited) articles on Wikipedia above most sources on the web.

Seems like you’re looking for anecdotes rather than data which strikes me as strange for a purported rationalist. The plural of anecdote may be data, but the quality of those data will be low. If it helps, I had one dose of AZ and had minimal side effects (slight headache, tiredness) that were gone in under 24 hours.

Answer by garethMay 31, 2021-4

The risk of death from covid after vaccination is near zero and this seems to be the case despite the variants. The vaccines all seem to be holding up well against the variants so your friends info is anecdote not data. If you’re still worried, keep wearing a mask, taking vitamin d and avoid large gatherings with people of unknown vaccination status. Apart from that, assuming you are living in an area with high vaccinations rates, just get on with your life. I would suggest that the risk to your mental health from continued isolation is higher than the risk of long covid.

Load More