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Gatlen Culp — LessWrong

Gatlen Culp's Shortform

Gatlen Culp

6mo

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Gatlen Culp6moQuick Take

Here are the results from 6-day-long research sprint on some mathematical formalisms for power:

Mathematical Foundations for Power Analysis: Dahlian Power, Power-Preference Connection, Absolute-vs-Relative Power

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1a4C5NI_xy9q1ISqomQ0ZPraGT26yPE1r?usp=drive_link

Disclaimer: This is an exploratory, partially abandoned line of work. Some characterizations (e.g., Dahl, Lukes), derivations, proofs, or statements may be incomplete, incorrect, or incoherent. I’m sharing this work because it may be useful or inspiring despite underdevelopment.

Briefly: I formalize and extend Dahl’s 1957 concept of power for complex, pseudo-multi-agent systems. The framework (i) generalizes from binary to multi-valued means, (ii) models pseudo-multi-controller settings and environmental outcomes, and (iii) introduces comparative measures (marginal, adversarial pairwise, and coalition power) with accompanying diagrams. I then make explicit three structural limitations of Dahlian... (read more)

Cursory Analysis of LLMs in the US Gov (July 2025)

Gatlen Culp

7mo

Original Google Doc

Disclaimer: After writing the content myself, I used Claude 4 Sonnet for targeted stylistic changes.

Disclaimer: I have never worked in the US Government and lack expert insight into its operations. This research was completed in two days as an opportunity to learn in public. Rather than stating only what I know to be true, I'll share what I think is the case and flag uncertainty for critique. This should be used as a primer rather than a source of truth. Please do your own research and take this analysis with a grain of salt.

Overview

The US Government is experiencing rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) across agencies, highlighted by the Department... (read 2756 more words →)

AI-2027 Response: Inter-AI Tensions, Value Distillation, US Multipolarity, & More

Gatlen Culp

8mo

AI Disclaimer After writing the content myself, I used Claude 3.7 / 4 Sonnet for targeted re-writes while actively avoiding meaningful alterations.

Background AI-2027 (ai-2027.com) is a heavily researched and influential attempt at providing a concrete (but admittedly accelerated) forecast on AI capability development and its potential consequences. This post is my near-full response to AI-2027, introducing (but not exploring the full consequences of) additional considerations not included in the original forecast. This is an unorganized collection of ideas written at lengths that aren't necessarily proportional to their importance. Be warned!

Key 🎲 = Gatlen’s intuition-based probability

01 Overview

AI 2027's timeline of technical developments broadly aligns with my expectations, albeit potentially stretching out... (read 2121 more words →)