Godbluff

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Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

Do any of you know about prediction markets used to predict advances in the development of medicines/procedures for increasing longevity?

How Likely Is Cryonics To Work?

On top of that, your estimates have other problems. Where did you get the figures for each event? Also: there are a lot of things that could go wrong and you are not taking them into account.

How Likely Is Cryonics To Work?

I think you are making a fundamental mistake in calculating your probabilities. You are assuming that all the events you mention are independent. And then, you take the complement of each event [1 -P (A)] and multiply all the values to obtain the probability of success.

The problem with this form of reasoning is that you are assuming that all events are independent of each other, when this is completely false.

For example: if you suffer from Alzheimer's, you are less likely to have the financial capacity to pay for your cryonics contract.