Good_Burning_Plastic

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Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy

A mysterious but trustworthy agent named "Laplace's Demon" has recently appeared, and informed everyone that, to a first approximation, the world is currently in one of seven possible quantum states.

What is the word "quantum" doing there? Repeat with me: Quantum superpositions are not about epistemic uncertainty! Quantum superpositions are not about epistemic uncertainty! Quantum superpositions are not about epistemic uncertainty!

Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy

The following rules are stipulated: There are four possible outcomes, either "Hillary elected and US Nuked", "Hillary elected and US not nuked", "Jeb elected and US nuked", "Jeb elected and US not nuked". Participants in the market can buy and sell contracts for each of those outcomes, the contract which correponds to the actual outcome will expire at $100, all other contracts will expire at $0

An issue about that is that all other things being equal $100 will be worth more if the US is not nuked than if it is.

Teachable Rationality Skills

Would buying him the first round count? ;-)

Of Exclusionary Speech and Gender Politics

OTOH "venusian" sounds like it's about the planet.

Of Exclusionary Speech and Gender Politics

to the extent that 'paternalism' implies 'when done by males' I would perhaps want to use a different word

"Parentalism"?

(And "maternalism" when done by females? ;-))

Of Exclusionary Speech and Gender Politics

You won't get approached by women just for looking good

Speak for yourself! :-)

Steelmanning the Chinese Room Argument

Since other people are biologically similar to me, they probably say "I'm conscious" for the same reason as me, so it makes sense to believe them.

Be careful (2, 3).

Can anyone refute these arguments that we live on the interior of a hollow Earth?

Meh. You can have two systems of coordinates related to each other by r_1 = R_Earth^2/r_2, theta_1 = theta_2, phi_1 = phi_2, t_1 = t_2 and as per general relativity both will give you the same answers if you use them right. (But one of the two will be much much easier to use right than the other.)

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