I moved to the DC area about a year ago, and now that case levels are extremely low and vaccinations have been readily available for months, I'd love to find a chance to meet up in person (I would've been happy to meet outside earlier, but it seems others didn't...
I currently work as an operations research team leader for a large organization (large organization, small team). For personal and professional reasons I won't post the details here in the public forum, but can provide some via PM on request. In about one to two years I expect to have...
UPDATE 11NOV: I came up with a game to use as an icebreaker. And I'd love ideas for future variations. It's a combination of Credence Calibration, 20 Questions, and Taboo. The children are trying to determine which of three possible states exist on the card which I have face down...
Looks like SSC meetups are still ongoing: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/ifsZbNmHwxhCm7F4n/slate-star-codex-meetup?commentId=ZccQoDDQY2skHDsAY#ZccQoDDQY2skHDsAY
This whole time? Man, I haven't been looking hard enough. What's the algorithm, 2d Saturdays at 1900?
Ahh, I think I did not think through what "rationality enhancement" might mean; perhaps my own recent search and the AI context of Yudkowsky's original intent skewed me a little. I was thinking of something like "understanding and applying concepts of rationality" in a way that might include "anticipating misaligned AI" or "anticipating AI-human feedback responses".
I like the way you've framed what's probably the useful question. I'll need to think about that a bit more.
Cool, thanks for sharing.
I posted about my academic research interest here, do you know their research well enough to give input on whether my interests would be compatible? I would love to find a way to do my PhD in Europe, but especially Germany.
Cool, that sounds like a pretty useful combination.
I'd love to. The soonest I'd be available in August would be at the end of the month. I'm sure we can find somewhere public that would work. What will you be studying?
A few observations.
First, it seems likely that the increase in positivity can be explained by fewer precautionary tests: fewer people are getting tested "just to be sure", fewer people are being required by work/travel/etc. to get tested. Therefore fewer negative tests.
Second, it seems likely to me that the "93%, 93%, 91%" numbers are calculated independently from each other. I.e. 93% less likely to contract than unvaccinated, 93% less likely to hospitalize than unvaccinated, and the vaccinated group was 91% less likely to die than the unvaccinated group. So with alpha, all probabilities were reduced ~uniformly. Now consider a variant (delta) where the vaccine is not as effective at reducing symptoms of any... (read more)
I've started formalizing my research proposal, so I now have:
I intend to use computational game theory, system modeling, cognitive science, causal inference, and operations research methods to explore the ways in which AI systems can produce unintended consequences and develop better methods to anticipate outer alignment failures.
Can anyone point me to existing university research along these lines? I've made some progress after finding this thread, and I'm now planning to contact FHI about their Research Scholar's Programme, but I'm still finding it a little time-consuming to try to match specific ongoing research with a given University or professor, so if anyone can point me to any other university programs (or professors to contact) which would fit well with my interests, that would be super helpful.
Wait, isn't that an example of efficiency of scale being dependent on investment? You have to get a 1-foot rope and scissors, but once you have, you can create two 1/2 foot ropes? I think the "given a 1-foot rope" is doing more work than you realize, because when I try to apply your example to the world above, I keep getting hung up on "but in the imaginary world above, when we account for economy of scale, if you just needed one 1/2 foot rope, you would just create a 1/2 foot rope, and that would take you 1/2 the time as creating 1 foot of rope." And for The David,... (read more)
I moved to the DC area about a year ago, and now that case levels are extremely low and vaccinations have been readily available for months, I'd love to find a chance to meet up in person (I would've been happy to meet outside earlier, but it seems others didn't really feel the same). Happy to join anything SSC (well, ACX now) or lesswrong focused, or really anything from this crowd.
I'd offer to host, but I'm afraid my location is not generally accessible.
I currently work as an operations research team leader for a large organization (large organization, small team). For personal and professional reasons I won't post the details here in the public forum, but can provide some via PM on request. In about one to two years I expect to have an opportunity to start a resident PhD program with up to three years to complete the resident portion. There's a long side discussion I could go down here about whether or not the PhD is the best choice, but for now let's take it as a given that the piece of paper will increase promotion potential, pay, or both, with minimal cost.... (read 370 more words →)
UPDATE 11NOV:
I came up with a game to use as an icebreaker. And I'd love ideas for future variations. It's a combination of Credence Calibration, 20 Questions, and Taboo. The children are trying to determine which of three possible states exist on the card which I have face down (for my first iteration, the possibilities will be "Cat", "Rat", and "Dog"). Every kid gets 30 poker chips to allocate to each of the three possibilities. Kids will then take turns asking a yes or no question, but before each Q, I roll a six sided die. If it comes up six, all chips placed on a wrong answer are turned in,... (read 270 more words →)
No problem. Looks like that will be the soonest I'll be able to make it as well.