https://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY quick estimate, mostly influenced by the "outside view" and other commenters (of which I found the reasoning of tim_dettmer to be most convincing).
https://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY quick estimate, mostly influenced by the "outside view" and other commenters (of which I found the reasoning of tim_dettmer to be most convincing).