I am 31 and previously worked at a prominent alt investment fund in NYC and am now working towards a Physician Assistant degree. In 2022 I started a commercial insurance operation focused on AI insurance solutions and within a year my AI anxiety shot up exponentially. After failling to reach commercial success in that venture I decided to resign from the fund and pursue a health care degree (dumb I should have stayed and kept my $250k salary). I believe healthcare employees will be valued for longer than most professionals in a world accelerating towards AGI but who knows. I struggle with AI induced depression as the result of uncertainty which is overwhelming and the implications as outlined are frightening and largely out of my control. I have no material savings as I only recently paid off my student loans and now am stuck financing another educational endeavor.
I think this article does an excellent job outlining the potential scenarios and implications to human well-being in a leading up to and in a post AGI world. I believe the US should develop a political party focused on supply side economics and human prosperity (Democratic Socialism with a Centrally Planned Economy with significant wealth Redistribution). Governments should focus on growing their military population to maintain public order as AGI induced human displacement accelerates. I see a complete collapse in certain societies a-kin to what we saw in Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Haiti in recent history. Essentially, capital poor countries are going to be most sensitive to AGI as they can't leverage their populations for income or even sustain their populations without access to global markets due to a lack of resources (minerals, water, etc.) or physical capital (infrastructure) aka Egypt, Lebanon, Haiti, Sri Lanka, etc.
Lets run through the exercise of a post AGI world for Egypt a country that in 2023 spent 43% of government revenue on interest expense alone more than double the US. Egypt runs considerable trade deficits for a developing country averaging around 7.24% since 1960. On top of that 6.22% of the countries GDP in 23' is dependent on remittances, and in 24' 8.1% of GDP came from Tourism. Those 3 stats alone represent over 20% of Egypts GDP which already has a terribly poor population with just 3,338.47 USD GDP per Capita (2024). Egypt lacks three major natural resources required to sustain a society including water, energy, and food production (limited types based on climate). How could you possibly transition Egypt to a post AGI world smoothly?
1st world countries will be incentivized to get involved in stabilizing 3rd world nations from collapsing as environmental collapse in 3rd world countries has real implications globally. When you can't import fuel what do you burn? When you can't buy groceries what do you eat? When your cities collapse where do people flee too?
I believe most of the developed world will be okay but that China is the best positioned to handle a post AGI world. The transition in the US, Europe, and other G7 nations needs to be smooth to avoid complete global collapse as a result of environmental and societal collapse in the 3rd world.
I feel as though the best we could hope for in terms of modern literature fictionalized post humanist worlds is Divergent or the Giver while worst case would be Elysian or extinction.
I love people and am always fascinated by them. I am less fascinated by AI to my own dismay. I think it is incredible that we are creating an entity that can consume 100,000 of years of human intelligence and from a single entity utilize it, but the thought that this wouldn't be to benefit all of humanity is disturbing.
I am 31 and previously worked at a prominent alt investment fund in NYC and am now working towards a Physician Assistant degree. In 2022 I started a commercial insurance operation focused on AI insurance solutions and within a year my AI anxiety shot up exponentially. After failling to reach commercial success in that venture I decided to resign from the fund and pursue a health care degree (dumb I should have stayed and kept my $250k salary). I believe healthcare employees will be valued for longer than most professionals in a world accelerating towards AGI but who knows. I struggle with AI induced depression as the result of uncertainty which is overwhelming and the implications as outlined are frightening and largely out of my control. I have no material savings as I only recently paid off my student loans and now am stuck financing another educational endeavor.
I think this article does an excellent job outlining the potential scenarios and implications to human well-being in a leading up to and in a post AGI world. I believe the US should develop a political party focused on supply side economics and human prosperity (Democratic Socialism with a Centrally Planned Economy with significant wealth Redistribution). Governments should focus on growing their military population to maintain public order as AGI induced human displacement accelerates. I see a complete collapse in certain societies a-kin to what we saw in Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Haiti in recent history. Essentially, capital poor countries are going to be most sensitive to AGI as they can't leverage their populations for income or even sustain their populations without access to global markets due to a lack of resources (minerals, water, etc.) or physical capital (infrastructure) aka Egypt, Lebanon, Haiti, Sri Lanka, etc.
Lets run through the exercise of a post AGI world for Egypt a country that in 2023 spent 43% of government revenue on interest expense alone more than double the US. Egypt runs considerable trade deficits for a developing country averaging around 7.24% since 1960. On top of that 6.22% of the countries GDP in 23' is dependent on remittances, and in 24' 8.1% of GDP came from Tourism. Those 3 stats alone represent over 20% of Egypts GDP which already has a terribly poor population with just 3,338.47 USD GDP per Capita (2024). Egypt lacks three major natural resources required to sustain a society including water, energy, and food production (limited types based on climate). How could you possibly transition Egypt to a post AGI world smoothly?
1st world countries will be incentivized to get involved in stabilizing 3rd world nations from collapsing as environmental collapse in 3rd world countries has real implications globally. When you can't import fuel what do you burn? When you can't buy groceries what do you eat? When your cities collapse where do people flee too?
I believe most of the developed world will be okay but that China is the best positioned to handle a post AGI world. The transition in the US, Europe, and other G7 nations needs to be smooth to avoid complete global collapse as a result of environmental and societal collapse in the 3rd world.
I feel as though the best we could hope for in terms of modern literature fictionalized post humanist worlds is Divergent or the Giver while worst case would be Elysian or extinction.
I love people and am always fascinated by them. I am less fascinated by AI to my own dismay. I think it is incredible that we are creating an entity that can consume 100,000 of years of human intelligence and from a single entity utilize it, but the thought that this wouldn't be to benefit all of humanity is disturbing.