Richard Korzekwa

Director at AI Impacts.

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Regardless, most definitions [of compute overhang] are not very analytically useful or decision-relevant. As of April 2023, the cost of compute for an LLM's final training run is around $40M. This is tiny relative to the value of big technology companies, around $1T. I expect compute for training models to increase dramatically in the next few years; this would cause how much more compute labs could use if they chose to to decrease.

I think this is just another way of saying there is a very large compute overhang now and it is likely to get at least somewhat smaller over the next few years.

Keep in mind that "hardware overhang" first came about when we had no idea if we would figure out how to make AGI before or after we had the compute to implement it.

Drug development is notably different because, like AI, it's a case where the thing we want to regulate is an R&D process, not just the eventual product

I agree, and I think I used "development" and "deployment" in this sort of vague way that didn't highlight this very well.

But even if we did have a good way of measuring those capabilities during training, would we want them written into regulation? Or should we have simpler and broader restrictions on what counts as good AI development practices?

I think one strength of some IRB-ish models of regulation is that you don't rely so heavily on a careful specification of the thing that's not allowed, because instead of meshing directly with all the other bureaucratic gears, it has a layer of human judgment in between. Of course, this does pass the problem to "can you have regulatory boards that know what to look for?", which has its own problems.

I put a lid on the pot because it saves energy/cooks faster. Or maybe it doesn't, I don't know, I never checked.

I checked and it does work.

Seems like the answer with pinball is to avoid the unstable processes, not control them.

Regarding the rent for sex thing: The statistics I've been able to find are all over the place, but it looks like men are much more likely to not have a proper place to sleep than women. My impression is this is caused by lots of things (I think there are more ways for a woman to be eligible for government/non-profit assistance, for example), but it does seems like evidence that women are exchanging sex for shelter anyway (either directly/explicitly or less directly, like staying in a relationship where the main thing she gets is shelter and the main thing the other person gets is sex).

Wow, thanks for doing this!

I'm very curious to know how this is received by the general public, AI researchers, people making decisions, etc. Does anyone know how to figure that out?

With the caveats that this is just my very subjective experience, I'm not sure what you mean by "moderately active" or "an athlete", and I'm probably taking your 80/20 more literally than you intended:

I agree there's a lot of improvement from that first 20% of effort (or change in habits or time or whatever), but I think it's much less than than 80% of the value. Like, say 0% effort is the 1-2 hours/week of walking I need do to get to work and buy groceries and stuff, 20% is 2-3 hours of walking + 1-2 hours at the gym or riding a bike, and 100% is 12 hours/week of structured training on a bicycle. I think 20% gets me maybe 40-50% of the benefit for doing stuff that requires thinking clearly that 100% gets me. Where the diminishing returns really kick in is around 6-8 hours/week of structured training (so 60%?), which seems to get me about 80-90% of the benefit.

That said: Anecdotally, I seem to need more intense exercise than a lot of people. Low-to-moderate intensity exercise, even in significant quantity, has a weirdly small effect on my mood and my (subjectively judged by me) cognitive ability.

Right, but being more popular than the insanely popular thing would be pretty notable (I suppose this is the intuition behind the "most important chart of the last 100 years" post), and that's not what happened.

The easiest way to see what 6500K-ish sunlight looks like without the Rayleigh scattering is to look at the light from a cloudy sky. Droplets in clouds scatter without the strong wavelength dependence that air molecules do, so it's closer to the unmodified solar spectrum (though there is still atmospheric absorption).

If you're interested in (somewhat rudimentary) color measurements of some natural and artificial light sources, you can see them here.

It's maybe fun to debate about whether they had mens rea, and the courts might care about the mens rea after it all blows up, but from our perspective, the main question is what behaviors they’re likely to engage in, and there turn out to be many really bad behaviors that don’t require malice at all.

I agree this is the main question, but I think it's bad to dismiss the relevance of mens rea entirely. Knowing what's going on with someone when they cause harm is important for knowing how best to respond, both for the specific case at hand and the strategy for preventing more harm from other people going forward.

I used to race bicycles with a guy who did some extremely unsportsmanlike things, of the sort that gave him an advantage relative to others. After a particularly bad incident (he accepted a drink of water from a rider on another team, then threw the bottle, along with half the water, into a ditch), he was severely penalized and nearly kicked off the team, but the guy whose job was to make that decision was so utterly flabbergasted by his behavior that he decided to talk to him first. As far as I can tell, he was very confused about the norms and didn't realize how badly he'd been violating them. He was definitely an asshole, and he was following clear incentives, but it seems his confusion was a load-bearing part of his behavior because he appeared to be genuinely sorry and started acting much more reasonably after.

Separate from the outcome for this guy in particular, I think it was pretty valuable to know that people were making it through most of a season of collegiate cycling without fully understanding the norms. Like, he knew he was being an asshole, but he didn't really get how bad it was, and looking back I think many of us had taken the friendly, cooperative culture for granted and hadn't put enough effort into acculturating new people.

Again, I agree that the first priority is to stop people from causing harm, but I think that reducing long-term harm is aided by understanding what's going on in people's heads when they're doing bad stuff.

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