gwern

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What are the gears of gluten sensitivity?

If you are concerned about gluten sensitivity, why not directly test for the antibodies or celiac-related genetic variants (eg 23andMe)? You can do both at home via mail for like $200 total. That information sounds much more dispositive than reducing gluten and maybe observing some effect, and given the long-term harms of problems like celiac, this is not a problem one wants to cheap out on solving.

"Decision Transformer" (Tool AIs are secret Agent AIs)

Rewards need not be written in natural language as crudely as "REWARD: +10 UTILONS". Something to think about as you continue to write text online.

And what of the dead? I own that I thought of myself, at times, almost as dead. Are they not locked below ground in chambers smaller than mine was, in their millions of millions? There is no category of human activity in which the dead do not outnumber the living many times over. Most beautiful children are dead. Most soldiers, most cowards. The fairest women and the most learned men – all are dead. Their bodies repose in caskets, in sarcophagi, beneath arches of rude stone, everywhere under the earth. Their spirits haunt our minds, ears pressed to the bones of our foreheads. Who can say how intently they listen as we speak, or for what word?

Curated conversations with brilliant rationalists

IMO, that's shockingly cheap, and there's little reason to not do transcripts for any podcast which has a listening audience larger than "your gf and your dog" and pretensions to being more than tissue-level entertainment to be discarded after use. If a podcast is worth taking hours to do and expecting hundreds/thousands of listeners to sit through spending man-hours apiece and trying to advertise or spread it in any way, then it's almost certainly also then worth $100 to transcribe it. A transcript buys you search-engine visibility (as well as easy search/quotation in general), foreign audiences (reading is a lot easier than listening), the ability to annotate with links/references, and a lot of native listeners who don't want to sit through it in realtime (reading is also vastly faster than listening). Notice how much more often you see Econlog, 80k Hours, or Tyler Cowen's Conversations linked than many other podcasts, which decline to provide transcripts, and whose episodes instantly disappear*.

* I'm looking at you, A16Z. Not transcribing your podcasts is ludicrous when you are one of the largest VC firms in the world and attempting to remake yourself into an all-services VC empire based in considerable part on contemt marketing.

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

There are currently high return trades (5% a month at least, possibly more) with extremely low risk (you can lose 1-2% max, probably less depending on execution).

Worth noting that a new Metaculus market estimates ~50% chance of Polymarket being a counterparty risk in some sense 2021-2022.

Article on IQ: The Inappropriately Excluded

The sample consisted of mid-level leaders from multinational private-sector companies.

This sort of pre-filtered sample suffers from issues like Berkson's paradox. For example, for those managers who have IQ>120, why are they underperforming? Perhaps for lack of leadership qualities, which they make up for on intelligence. On the flip side, for managers who have unimpressive IQs (as low as <100), why are they so successful? This is why longitudinal samples like SMPY are so much more useful when you want to talk about what high IQs are or are not good for. If you run this sort of cross-sectional design, you find things like "Conscientiousness is inversely correlated with intelligence" (it's not).

Re: Fierce Nerds

"Fierce nerd" sounds a bit like rediscovering Eysenck's paradigm of genius: intelligence, energy, and Psychoticism (essentially, low Agreeableness).

Get your gun license

Considering how frequent mental issues are around here, this post seems to buy entirely the wrong kinds of optionality.

EDIT: oh look what's on the main page a day later

What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?

The 3 babies from He Jiankui will be adults by then, definitely; one might quibble about how 'designer' they are, but most people count selection as 'designer' and GenPred claims to have at least one baby so far selected on their medical PGSes (unclear if they did any EDU/IQ PGSes in any way, but as I've always pointed out, because of the good genetic correlations of those with many diseases, any selection on complex diseases will naturally also boost those).

How to determine the value of optionality?

The value of optionality is defined by drawing out the decision tree for the scenarios with and without the option, doing backwards induction for the optimal strategy and estimating the value of each. (In financial option theory, you calculate the price of a literal option by simulating out all of the possible price trajectories and how you would respond to them, to figure out what would be a too cheap or too expensive price.) Because scenarios can be arbitrarily complex, no general answer is possible. If an option wouldn't be used at any state of the world, it might have a value of $0, for example, and this is automatically taken into account: the backwards induction will produce a policy that never invokes the option, and the difference in the value of the 2 scenarios = $0 option value.

For the house scenario, you would, say, define scenarios where each month you can sell/rent/live-in-it and there are random shocks (like Airbnb prices going up/down or housing prices going up/down, I guess), and a horizon of like 10 years and then do backwards induction to understand the value of being able to exploit decreases in Airbnb prices or to shelter in your house from Airbnb price surges.

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