And some further personal comments: https://aleph.se/andart2/personal/thoughts-at-the-end-of-an-era/
The Daily Nous (a relatively 'popular' academic philosophy blog) managed to get a non-statement out of Oxford:
Oxford University has taken the difficult decision to close the Future of Humanity Institute, a research centre in the Faculty of Philosophy. The Institute has made an important contribution to the study of the future of humanity, for which we would like to thank and recognise the research team. Researchers elsewhere across Oxford University are likely to continue to work on this emerging field.
I would say that the closest to FHI at Oxford right now would probably be Global Priorities Institute (GPI). A lot of these papers would've made just as much sense coming out of FHI. (Might be worth considering how GPI apparently seems to have navigated Oxford better.)
Twitter, probably.
Any updates on this? For example, I notice that the new music services like Suno & Udio seem to be betraying a bit of mode collapse and noticeable same-yness, but they certainly do not degenerate into such within-song repetition like these were.
Notable: Anders Sandberg has written an 'oral history' of FHI as a final FHI report: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf (excerpts)
It would be ironic if that turned out to be true, but because of our apparent Western cultural cycle right now being anti-alcohol, came to be regarded as a feature of the Lumina bacteria rather than a bug (of the bugs).
But you say “Look at how big those planes are getting! We’ve gone from small fighter planes, to bombers, to jets in a short amount of time. We’re on a double exponential of plane tech, and it’s just a matter of time before one of them will land on the moon!”
...And they were right? Humans did land on the moon roughly on that timeline (and as I recall, there were people before the moon landing at RAND and elsewhere who were extrapolating out the exponentials of speed, which was a major reason for such ill-fated projects like the supersonic interceptors for Soviet bombers), and it was a fairly seamless set of s-curves, as all of the aerospace technologies were so intertwined and shared similar missions of 'make stuff go fast' (eg. rocket engines could power a V-2, or it could power a Me 163 instead). What is a spy satellite but a spy plane which takes one very long reconnaissance flight? And I'm sure you recall what the profession was of almost all of the American moon landers were before they became astronauts - plane pilots, usually military.
And all of this happened with minimal intentionality up until not terribly long before the moon landing happened! Yes, people like von Braun absolutely intended to go to the moon (and beyond), but those were rare dreamers. Most people involved in building all of those capabilities that made a moon mission possible had not the slightest intent of going to the moon - right up until Kennedy made his famous speech, America turned on a dime, and, well, the rest is history.
It is said that in long-term forecasting, it is better to focus on capabilities than intentions... And intentions have never been more mutable, and more irrelevant on average, than with AIs.
(“If your solution to some problem relies on ‘If everyone would just…’ then you do not have a solution. Everyone is not going to just. At no time in the history of the universe has everyone just, and they’re not going to start now.”)
That doesn't seem like it. In many contexts, a 10x saving is awesome and definitely a 'blessed' improvement if you can kill 90% of the noise in anything you have to work with. But you don't want to do that with logs. You can't distill information in advance of a bug (or anomaly, or attack) because a bug by definition is going to be breaking all of the past behavior & invariants governing normal behavior that any distillation was based on. If it didn't, it would usually be fixed already. ("We don't need to record variable X in the log because X cannot change." NARRATOR: "X changed.") The logs are for the exceptions - which are precisely what any non-end-to-end lossy compression (factor analysis or otherwise) will correctly throw out information about to compress as residuals to ignore in favor of the 'signal'. Which is why the best debugging systems like time-travel debugging or the shiny new Antithesis work hard to de facto save everything.